Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007

Luo, Jing–Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Masumoto, Yukio; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yamagata, Toshio

doi:10.1029/2007gl032793

Cited by 145 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…[14] IOD events may be predictable out to several months in advance [Luo et al, 2008]. Exploitation of this predictability could therefore lead to significant improvements in water planning and agricultural management in a droughtstricken region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?

Ummenhofer

England

McIntosh

et al. 2009

Geophysical Research Letters

573

408

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Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so‐called “Big Dry”. The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying‐out of two of Australia's major river systems and far‐reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show here that the “Big Dry” and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895–1902) and World War II drought (1937–1945), are driven by Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of Indian Ocean temperature conditions conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the “Big Dry”, its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent higher temperatures.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While still a topic of research, there is increasing evidence that the IOD often occurs independently of ENSO events [Meyers et al, 2007;Luo et al, 2008]. To isolate the effect of the Indian Ocean from ENSO conditions, the composites are only taken for years in which ''pure'' IOD events occur, i.e.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?

Ummenhofer

England

McIntosh

et al. 2009

Geophysical Research Letters

573

408

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This relationship between the IOD and year-toyear variations of seasonal anoxic conditions along the shelf may facilitate an advance warning for the possible occurrence of severe anoxic events. Recent studies do indeed indicate that skillful predictions of mature IOD events in fall can be achieved about one season ahead (e.g., Wang and Justic, 2009;Zhao and Hendon, 2009;Sooraj et al, 2012) and up to two seasons ahead in the case of large IOD events (Luo et al, , 2008Shi et al, 2012). Those predictions of IOD events should allow providing a warning about the likelihood of severe anoxic conditions along the WCI during spring or summer.…”

Section: Influence Of the Iod On The Interannual Oxygen Variability Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events prevent anoxia off the west coast of India

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The seasonal upwelling along the west coast of India (WCI) brings nutrient-rich, oxygen-poor subsurface waters to the continental shelf, favoring very low oxygen concentrations in the surface waters during late boreal summer and fall. This yearly-recurring coastal hypoxia is more severe during some years, leading to coastal anoxia that has strong impacts on the living resources. In the present study, we analyze a 1/4 • resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical regional oceanic simulation over the 1960-2012 period to investigate the physical processes influencing the oxycline interannual variability off the WCI, that being a proxy for the variability on the shelf in our model. Our analysis indicates a tight relationship between the oxycline and thermocline variations in this region on both seasonal and interannual timescales, thereby revealing a strong physical control of the oxycline variability. As in observations, our model exhibits a shallow oxycline and thermocline during fall that combines with interannual variations to create a window of opportunity for coastal anoxic events. We further demonstrate that the boreal fall oxycline fluctuations off the WCI are strongly related to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with an asymmetric influence of its positive and negative phases. Positive IODs are associated with easterly wind anomalies near the southern tip of India. These winds force downwelling coastal Kelvin waves that propagate along the WCI and deepen the thermocline and oxycline there, thus preventing the occurrence of coastal anoxia. On the other hand, negative IODs are associated with WCI thermocline and oxycline anomalies of opposite sign but of smaller amplitude, so that the negative or neutral IOD phases are necessary but not the sufficient condition for coastal anoxia. As the IODs generally start developing in summer, these findings suggest some predictability to the occurrence of coastal anoxia off the WCI a couple of months ahead.

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“…Signals in June, for example, are predicted from the March initial condition, when no downwelling Rossby waves are present in the initial conditions. Details of the model and initialization are discussed by Luo et al [2005aLuo et al [ , 2005bLuo et al [ , 2008aLuo et al [ , 2008b.…”

Section: Model and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative role of El Niño and IOD forcing on the southern tropical Indian Ocean Rossby waves

et al. 2014

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The role of local air-sea interactions over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and remote forcing from the tropical Pacific Ocean in the formation and maintenance of southern TIO Rossby waves during El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years is investigated. These Rossby waves are significantly intensified during the El Niño and IOD cooccurrence years, as compared to those during pure El Niño or IOD years. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model sensitivity experiments reveal that air-sea coupled processes in the TIO are responsible for the Rossby wave formation and its maintenance from boreal summer to fall, while remote forcing from the Pacific intensifies and maintains these waves up to the following spring. During the cooccurrence years, the Rossby waves are generated by both the persistent equatorial easterlies and off-equatorial wind stress curl. During pure El Niño years, however, only off-equatorial wind stress curl exists to drive weak Rossby wave. Asymmetric heating associated with IOD and the mean background easterly vertical wind shear (in the northern hemisphere) during summer and fall excite two symmetric anticyclones in both sides of the equator as atmospheric Rossby wave response, which are responsible for the anomalous equatorial surface easterlies. In contrast, symmetric heat sink over the Maritime Continent in winter associated with El Niño-induced subsidence and mean easterly vertical shear (in southern hemisphere) are responsible for strong anticyclone in the southern TIO, which supports off-equatorial wind stress curl.

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Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007

Cited by 145 publications

References 15 publications

What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?

What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events prevent anoxia off the west coast of India

Relative role of El Niño and IOD forcing on the southern tropical Indian Ocean Rossby waves

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