Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes over the Western North Pacific: A Composite Study

Wu, Liguang; Ni, Zhongping; Duan, Jingjing; Zong, Huijun

doi:10.1175/mwr-d-12-00224.1

Cited by 46 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Wu et al () argued that the enhanced winds change to a clockwise direction in cases of northward track deviation and in a counter‐clockwise direction in the cases of more westward turning TCs. The present results and the counter‐clockwise shift (clockwise shift) of the low‐level wind maxima in the H2D (H3D) run is thus consistent with Wu et al () and this may also contribute to a more westward (northward) component in the movement from 1200 UTC 11 October 2013. A similar shift in the 700 hPa wind field as found in H3D is also noticed in the FNL fields (not shown).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal using the HWRF modelling system

Osuri

Nadimpalli

Mohanty

et al. 2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The study objective is to assess the impact of cloud-permitting resolution and improved representation of multiscale processes on the ability to predict rapid intensification (RI) and structure of Phailin (2013), one of the strongest tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Bay of Bengal. The state-of-the-art Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) modelling system is used with two different configurations. The first configuration uses a static domain of 27 km grid size with a movable nested domain of 9 km grid size (hereafter H2D). The second configuration has an additional movable nested domain of 3 km grid size (known as H3D) to resolve meso-and vortex-scale features respectively.The results clearly show the ability of the H3D system at cloud-permitting resolution (3 km) in predicting the TC movement, intensity and structure. The storm-to-vortex scale interaction in H3D allowed for better prediction of large-scale wind flow, low-level wind asymmetry and PV tendency, and provided insight to improve track predictions. The vortex depth is another important factor and the shallow vortex in the H2D run interacted differently with the large-scale environment and resulted in large track and intensity errors. Substantial gains are noticed in RI and structure prediction, mainly due to better simulation of diabatic heating, strong inflow, and moisture distribution in H3D, where the intensity errors are ≤11 knots (5.6 m s −1 ) up to the 72 h forecast, and up to 40 knots (20.5 m s −1 ) in the H2D version. The upper-level warming is well resolved in the H3D as compared to the H2D run. In summary, this study highlights the need for considering multiscale interactions and improved physics along with high-resolution initialization to resolve convective processes in the vortex and to realistically predict track, structure, and intensity changes. is defined as an increase of 30 knots (15.4 m s −1 ) in 3 min sustained maximum wind speed in a 24 h period.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal using the HWRF modelling system

Osuri

Nadimpalli

Mohanty

et al. 2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…To this end, we adopt two thresholds of abrupt turnings for the WNP TCs that were developed in a composite study of Wu et al (2013), which was based on a compromise between the number of available samples, the composite mean value, and the standard derivation of directional changes. That is, an abrupt right turning is defined if a track directional change exceeds 408 (378) during a 12-h (6 h) period, whereas an abrupt left turning is defined when a track directional change exceeds 258 (258).…”

Section: A Track Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Upper-Tropospheric Cold Low and Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Change over the Western North Pacific

Wei

Zhang

et al. 2016

Mon. Wea. Rev.

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The geographical and temporal characteristics of upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) and their relationship to tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity change over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 2000-12 are examined using the TC best track and global meteorological reanalysis data. An analysis of the two datasets shows that 73% of 346 TCs coexist with 345 UTCLs, and 21% of the latter coexist with TCs within an initial cutoff distance of 158. By selecting those coexisted systems within this distance, the possible influences of UTCL on TC track and intensity change are found, depending on their relative distance and on the sectors of UTCLs where TCs are located. Results show that the impact of UTCLs on TC directional changes are statistically insignificant when averaged within the 158 radius. However, left-turning TCs within 58 distance from the UTCL center exhibit large deviated directional changes from the WNP climatology, due to the presence of highly frequent abrupt left turnings in the eastern semicircle of UTCL. The abrupt turnings of TCs are often accompanied by their slow-down movements. Results also show that TCs seem more (less) prone to intensify at early (late) development stages when interacting with UTCLs compared to the WNP climatology. Intensifying (weakening) TCs are more distributed in the southern (northern) sectors of UTCLs, with less hostile conditions for weakening within 98-138 radial range. In addition, rapid intensifying TCs take place in the south-southwest and east-southeast sectors of UTCLs, whereas rapid weakening cases appear in the western semicircle of UTCLs due to their frequent proximity to mainland coastal regions.

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“…A sudden north-turning (right turning) TC is unusual in the SCS, while a sudden west-turning (left turning) TC is unusual in the ECS (Wu et al 2013). It is these unusual tracks that cause the most property damage and loss of life in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison between a Generalized Beta–Advection Model and a Classical Beta–Advection Model in Predicting and Understanding Unusual Typhoon Tracks in Eastern China Seas

Huang

Qian

2015

Weather and Forecasting

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A total of 163 tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the eastern China seas during 1979-2011 with four types of tracks: left turning, right turning, straight moving, and irregular. The left-turning type is unusual and hard to predict. In this paper, 133 TCs from the first three types have been investigated. A generalized beta-advection model (GBAM) is derived by decomposing a meteorological field into climatic and anomalous components. The ability of the GBAM to predict tracks 1-2 days in advance is compared with three classical betaadvection models (BAMs). For both normal and unusual tracks, the GBAM apparently outperformed the BAMs. The GBAM's ability to predict unusual TC tracks is particularly encouraging, while the BAMs have no ability to predict the left-turning and right-turning TC tracks. The GBAM was also used to understand unusual TC tracks because it can be separated into two forms: a climatic-flow BAM (CBAM) and an anomalous-flow BAM (ABAM). In the CBAM a TC vortex is steered by the large-scale climatic background flow, while in the ABAM, a TC vortex interacts with the surrounding anomalous flows. This decomposition approach can be used to examine the climatic and anomalous flows separately. It is found that neither the climatic nor the anomalous flow alone can explain unusual tracks. Sensitivity experiments show that two anomalous highs as well as a nearby TC played the major roles in the unusual left turn of Typhoon Aere (2004). This study demonstrates that a simple model can work well if key factors are properly included.

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Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes over the Western North Pacific: A Composite Study

Cited by 46 publications

References 36 publications

Prediction of rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal using the HWRF modelling system

Prediction of rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal using the HWRF modelling system

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Upper-Tropospheric Cold Low and Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Change over the Western North Pacific

A Comparison between a Generalized Beta–Advection Model and a Classical Beta–Advection Model in Predicting and Understanding Unusual Typhoon Tracks in Eastern China Seas

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