Suicide attempts in the provinces of Iran between 2009-2016- an observational study

Abstract

Background Suicide is a significant public health problem caused by the interaction between demographic, socio-economic, and cultural factors. According to the World Health Organization, about 804,000 fatal suicides and several times this number of suicide attempts occurred worldwide in 2017. Evidence suggests that the incidence of suicide varies among Iran provinces. It is essential to know these differences to allocate resources and adopt the right policies.Methods We used data recorded by the Ministry of Health and the National Forensic Medicine Organization during the study years to provide information about the rate of suicide attempts in the provinces of Iran. To accurately calculate the under-reporting of suicide attempts according to the frequency of successful suicide, we used TSsmooth methods in STATA 14 software. We ran Exponential, Moving Average, and H Winter models and the best model was chosen according to the lowest root mean square error.Results There were 30,137 successful suicide attempts and 349342 unsuccessful suicide attempts during the eight-year study period. Around 18,684 suicides resulted in the death of males, and 11,453 were females. Among the unsuccessful suicide attempts, 237,552 cases were males, and 111,790 were females. The incidence rate of eight years of successful suicide based on age in the age group (15–25 years) was higher than in other groups.Conclusion Considering the current situation in Iran, it is suggested that interventional measures be designed to reduce the incidence of suicide attempts, especially in the age group of 15–49 years, and to conduct pilot studies in provinces with relatively higher incidence rates than other provinces of the country.