Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus : recent trends and future scenarios

Abstract

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion.

Alien species and public health impacts in Europe: a literature review

“…Most of the 56 primary original articles did not consider potential effects of climate change (Table 5). Only three articles , Caminade et al 2012) assessed climate change impacts, and further 18 discussed potential impacts of climate change.…”

“…), and has facilitated the transmission of tropical and subtropical pathogens to temperate regions (Paupy et al 2009, Bonizzoni et al 2013. There, alien species may also benefit from climate change (Takumi et al 2009, Walther et al 2009, Caminade et al 2012, Dobson et al 2013, causing additional pressure on human health (Keller et al 2011, Strayer 2012.…”

Surface Temperatures at the Continental Scale: Tracking Changes with Remote Sensing at Unprecedented Detail

“…For example, the tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, an efficient vector of various viruses, cannot overwinter in areas with an average January air temperature of less than 0°C and requires at least 500 mm of rainfall per year [5]. We estimated the areas suitable for Ae.…”

“…We rescaled the January mean temperatures, such that −1°C corresponds to zero (totally unsuitable) and 3°C to one (highly suitable). Values between −1°C and 3°C were transformed using a sigmoidal function [5]. None of the previously published approaches is able to provide such a detailed habitat suitability map at the continental scale (see also [33]).…”

“…High spatial and temporal resolution datasets of environmental indicators are crucial requirements for detailed analyses in various fields of research [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Important environmental indicators are derived from temperature time series [7], since temperature is a main driver for most ecological and environmental processes [8].…”