Suitability of the global forest cover change map to assess climatic megadisturbance impacts on remote tropical forests

Abstract

The occurrence and combination of extreme meteorological events may lead to severe (megadisturbance) impacts on conserved forests and protected areas all over the world. Recent research has shown that megadisturbance impacts (after the events of hurricanes and prolonged drought) may be detected in subtropical forest cover using changes in spectral indices derived from satellite imagery. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of megadisturbance on forest types of the Alejandro de Humboldt National Park, Republic of Cuba in the 2001–2017 time-period. The Global Forest Cover Change (GFCC, available on the Global Forest Watch website) product was validated and indicated the prominence of megadisturbance for year 2016 (85% of the total disturbed area), largely associated with the Hurricane Matthew event. A robust estimator of the disturbed forest area, based on GFCC-stratified sampled verification sites, suggests that 11,110 ± 1,771 hectares of forest (~ 16% of the Park’s total area) was affected by megadisturbance between 2001 and 2017. In 2017, about 1276 hectares of forests were impacted, presumably related to a long-lasting effect of megadisturbance due to Hurricane Matthew and prolonged droughts in previous years. Four types of tropical rainforests (especially lowland rainforest and submountainous sclerophyllous rainforest on serpentinite), that cover 43% of the National Park, accounted for about 85% of the impacts by megadisturbance. The Easternmost portion of these forests should be prioritized for conservation monitoring and possibly for forest restoration strategies. This study contributes to establishing methodological guidelines for rapid environmental assessment of remote, tropical protected areas facing the impacts of extreme meteorological events and climate change.