Summertime inter-annual temperature variability in an ensemble of regional model simulations: analysis of the surface energy budget

Lenderink, Geert; Ulden, A. van; Hurk, Bart van den; Meijgaard, E. van

doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9229-9

Cited by 104 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The PRUDENCE ensemble shows a general overprediction of inter-annual variability, especially in summer. This result is consistent with the analysis of summer variability for the entire European continent by Lenderink et al (2007), who attributed it to excessively strong land-atmosphere coupling in the models. From an analysis of the CRU observations, Giorgi (2002) found that inter-annual variability increases as the spatial scale becomes smaller, especially for precipitation.…”

Section: Experiments and Datasetssupporting

confidence: 91%

An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations

Coppola

Giorgi

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:We present an assessment of climate change projections over the Italian peninsula for the 21st century from the CMIP3 global and PRUDENCE regional model experiments. We consider the A2, A1B, B2 and B1 emission scenarios. The climate change signal over Italy varies seasonally, with maximum warming in summer (up to several°C ) and minimum in winter, decreased precipitation over the entire peninsula in summer (locally up to −40%) and a dipolar precipitation change pattern in winter (increase to the north and decrease to the south). Inter-annual variability increases in all seasons for precipitation and in summer for temperature, while it decreases for winter temperature. The seasonal temperature anomaly probability density functions (PDFs) show a shift as well as a broadening and flattening in future climate conditions, especially in summer. This implies larger increases for extreme hot seasons than mean summer temperatures. The seasonal precipitation anomaly PDFs are greatly affected in summer, with a strong increase of very dry seasons. Moreover, seasons with large precipitation amounts tend to increase in future climate conditions, i.e. we find an increase of very dry (drought prone) and very wet (flood prone) seasons. The magnitude of future climate change depends on the emission scenario and the temperature and precipitation change signals show substantial fine-scale structure in response to the topographical forcing of the Italian major mountain systems. In addition, the change signal is greater than the inter-model standard deviation for temperature in all seasons and for precipitation in the summer. Finally, the CMIP3 ensemble captures the observed 20th century trends of temperature and precipitation change over northern Italy. A broad agreement between the projections obtained with the CMIP3 and PRUDENCE ensembles is found, which adds robustness to the findings. Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society KEY WORDS climate change projections over the Italian peninsula; seasonal temperature and precipitation anomaly; CMIP3; PRUDENCE

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Section: Experiments and Datasetssupporting

confidence: 91%

An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations

Coppola

Giorgi

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…In contrast most of the RCMs show higher inter-annual temperature variability than both gridded datasets for winter and summer seasons in the continental sub-regions. The overestimation of inter-annual temperature variability in summer by most of the RCMs in the Greek continental sub-regions has been also reported in other studies for the European domain with respect to the CRU TS 2.0 observational dataset Lenderink et al, 2007). This was linked to the behaviour of the different RCMs in the partitioning of the different terms to the surface energy budget.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Analysis of an ensemble of present day and future regional climate simulations for Greece

Zanis

Kapsomenakis

Philandras

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the simulated changes in temperature and precipitation over Greece from nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the period 2071-2100 under the A2 emission scenario and evaluates their performance during the control period 1961-1990 using Greek gridded datasets of temperature and precipitation. In winter, most RCMs show a bias towards warmer and dryer conditions and a bias towards higher inter-annual temperature variability and lower inter-annual variability of precipitation than the Greek gridded datasets during the control period . In summer, all RCMs show a cold bias for the maritime sub-regions and generally all sub-regions show very small biases in precipitation. Concerning the future projections of the RCMs for Greece the mean change of the nine RCMs for the mean air temperature, T 2mean, between the future period and the control period for the integrated Greek domain is 3.4°C for winter and 4.5°C for summer with the changes being larger in continental than in the marine sub-regions. The inter-annual temperature variability in the future simulations generally increases in summer and decreases in winter almost for all RCMs with these changes being larger in the continental sub-regions than in maritime sub-regions of Greece. Almost all RCMs simulate a decrease of the precipitation for the future climate for both winter and summer with the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation decreasing for the majority of RCMs. The reported future climatic changes will have important impacts for the region of Greece in vital sectors such as water resources, agriculture, tourism, forest fire risk and energy demand.

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“…According to Good et al (2006), the longest yearly dry spell would increase by as much as 50%, especially over France and central Europe. However, there is some recent evidence (Lenderink et al, 2007) that some of these projections for droughts and heatwaves may be slightly overestimated due to the parameterisation of soil moisture in regional climate models. Decreased summer precipitation in southern Europe, accompanied by rising temperatures, which enhances evaporative demand, would inevitably lead to reduced summer soil moisture (cf.…”

Section: 12]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

2012

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Summertime inter-annual temperature variability in an ensemble of regional model simulations: analysis of the surface energy budget

Cited by 104 publications

References 14 publications

An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations

An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations

Analysis of an ensemble of present day and future regional climate simulations for Greece

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

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