Sunspots and self-fulfilling beliefs in the U.S. housing market

Kashiwagi, Masanori

doi:10.1016/j.red.2014.01.004

Cited by 21 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The tensile properties of highly crosslinked organosilicone polymers are rarely reported in research papers, probably because of their poor tensile behavior produced by weak interaction among the molecules. In some current patents,41–43 the tensile strength of such polymers can reach 7–12 MPa. In our case, the pure PMPS is so brittle that it could not even be fabricated as tensile sample.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synthesis of poly(methylphenylsiloxane)/phenylene‐silica hybrid material with interpenetrating networks and its performance as thermal resistant coating

Gao

Jia

2012

J of Applied Polymer Sci

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In this study, poly(methylphenylsiloxane) (PMPS) and phenylene‐silica based hybrid material with interpenetrating networks was prepared by a two‐step sol–gel process. Firstly, in the presence of H2SO4, the phenylene‐silica was formed as sol particles with high branching degree by cohydrolysis and condensation of phenylene‐bridged monomer, tetraethoxysilane (TEOS), and hexamethyldisiloxane (MM). Then, the intermediate transformed into gel framework in polymer matrix using alkali catalyst, in order to produce a homogenous hybrid material with interpenetrating networks. The structure of prepared hybrid material was characterized by FTIR and NMR, suggesting that phenylene‐silica framework was imported into polymer matrix and the hybrid products have a much higher network chain density than neat PMPS. The thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) shows that the prepared materials start to degrade at around 490°C. The results of tensile test indicate that the typical PMPS/phenylene‐silica hybrid material has a tensile strength up to 26 MPa and demonstrate a certain degree of flexibility. An increase of phenylene content in phenylene‐silica particles tends to produce hybrid materials with improved thermal stability and tensile strength. The hybrid coating films after calcinating at 350 and 400°C for 2 h exhibit a good mechanical performance on adhesion, impact strength and flexibility. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements show that the investigated films have an extremely high electric resistance (1010 Ohm·cm2) and a satisfied impermeability to 3.5 wt % sodium chloride solution. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci., 2013

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synthesis of poly(methylphenylsiloxane)/phenylene‐silica hybrid material with interpenetrating networks and its performance as thermal resistant coating

Gao

Jia

2012

J of Applied Polymer Sci

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“…this structure. In this respect, empirical evidence by Mian and Sufi (2010, 2011, 2014 and Mian, Rao, and Sufi (2013) suggests that local housing markets, for U.S. counties, MSAs or ZIP code areas, imply different comovements of house prices, household debt, and consumption. Even within a given regional entity, further stratification according to demographic or social features may be necessary to identify those households who participate in the market for the relevant collateral good.…”

Section: The Model With Collateralized Household Debtmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This involves the key concept of our approach: The characterization of the set of equilibrium beliefs about future prices, as determined by the level of debt. This allows us to analyze the effects of changes in confidence, that is, variations within the set of equilibrium beliefs about future prices, on 5 More recently, this approach has been applied to (i) financial markets by Farmer, Nourry, and Venditti (2013) and Liu and Wang (2014), (ii) housing markets by Kashiwagi (2014) and Mertens and Ravn (2011), and (iii) international economics by Perri and Quadrini (2018). An important difference to Perri and Quadrini (2018) is that the collateral value is endogenously determined in our model by a pricing equation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Household debt and crises of confidence

Hintermaier¹,

Koeniger²

2018

Quantitative Economics

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This paper develops a notion of consumer confidence within a dynamic competitive equilibrium framework. In any situation where multiple equilibrium prices on next‐period spot markets are equally supported by the state of the economy, confidence is encoded in the subjective probabilities consumers attach to these multiple future outcomes. Our approach characterizes the set of all equilibrium‐consistent subjective probabilities, and thereby endogenizes the extent of uncertainty faced by consumers. We use the structure of an economy with collateralized household debt and housing markets to develop and illustrate this concept. Our approach determines the specific range of debt levels at which this economy is vulnerable to crises of confidence, as well as the debt‐level‐specific extent of confidence‐driven house price fluctuations.

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“…If the relevant collateral good is identified by a specific regional stratification, a perfectly closed market for land ownership among villagers represents an example of this structure. In this respect, empirical evidence by Mian and Sufi (2010, 2011, 2014 and Mian, Rao, and Sufi (2013) suggests that local housing markets, for U.S. counties, MSAs or ZIP code areas, imply different comovements of house prices, household debt and consumption. Even within a given regional entity, further stratification according to demographic or social features may be necessary to identify those households who participate in the market for the relevant collateral good.…”

Section: The Model With Collateralized Household Debtmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We show that mortgage-debt crises develop instead because changes of the collateral value introduce a liquidity feedback mechanism. 3 More recently this approach has been applied to (i) financial markets by Farmer et al (2013) and Liu and Wang (2014), (ii) housing markets by Kashiwagi (2014) and Mertens and Ravn (2011), and (iii) international economics by Perri and Quadrini (2011). An important difference to Perri and Quadrini (2011) is that the collateral value is endogenously determined in our model by a pricing equation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Household Debt and Crises of Confidence

Hintermaier

Koeniger

2015

SSRN Journal

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We show that the size of collateralized household debt determines an economy's vulnerability to crises of confidence. The house price feeds back on itself by contributing to a liquidity effect, which operates through the value of housing in a collateral constraint. Over a specific range of debt levels this liquidity feedback effect is strong enough to give rise to multiplicity of house prices. In a dynamic setup, we conceptualize confidence as a realization of rationally entertainable belief-weightings of multiple future prices. This delivers debt-level-dependent bounds on the extent to which confidence may drive house prices and aggregate consumption.

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Sunspots and self-fulfilling beliefs in the U.S. housing market

Cited by 21 publications

References 30 publications

Synthesis of poly(methylphenylsiloxane)/phenylene‐silica hybrid material with interpenetrating networks and its performance as thermal resistant coating

Synthesis of poly(methylphenylsiloxane)/phenylene‐silica hybrid material with interpenetrating networks and its performance as thermal resistant coating

Household debt and crises of confidence

Household Debt and Crises of Confidence

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