“Super Bowl Babies”: Do Counties with Super Bowl Winning Teams Experience Increases in Births Nine Months Later?

Abstract

Following the claim of a highly publicized National Football League (NFL) commercial, we test whether the Super Bowl provides a positive exogenous shock to fertility in counties of winning teams. Using stadium locations to identify teams’ counties, we analyze the number of births in counties of both winning and losing teams for ten recent Super Bowls. We also test for state effects and general effects of the NFL playoffs. Overall, our results show no clear pattern of increases in the number of births in winning counties nine months after the Super Bowl. We also do not find that births are affected at the state level or that counties competing in the playoffs are affected. Altogether, these results cast doubt on the NFL’s claim that winning cities experience increases in births nine months after the Super Bowl.

Soccer Scores, Short-Term Mood and Fertility

“…Two previous academic articles on the effect of sport events on fertility have produced contradictory findings. The anecdotal claim of an "Iniesta generation" following the last-minute goal by the Barcelona midfielder in the UEFA Champions league semifinal against Chelsea is confirmed by Montesinos et al (2013), while no evidence of "Super Bowl Babies" is found by Hayward and Rybińska (2017). What these two studies have in common is that they both focus on the supposed positive effect of success in a major sport event on fertility.…”

“…Montesinos et al (2013) document a spike in fertility in the Barcelona area nine months after a dramatic goal scored by Iniesta against Chelsea in the last minute of the semifinal of the UEFA Champions League in 2009, in line with anecdotal evidence reported in the Spanish news. 1 On the other hand, Hayward and Rybińska (2017) find that the Super Bowl does not produce an increase in the number of birth in the counties of winning teams nine months later, contrary to the anecdotal evidence in the news and a widely broadcasted NFL announcement. 2 In this article, we test the hypothesis that mood shocks influence fertility behavior, by studying the effect of unexpected results of soccer games in Spain on the number of births nine months thereafter.…”

“…For every winning team and euphoric group of fans, there is a corresponding defeated team and group of sorrowful supporters. In this respect, "sorrowful abstention" driven by negative mood is the opposite explanation to "celebratory intercourse" proposed (Hayward and Rybińska 2017). One can then hypothesize that negative mood shock induced by a defeat has a negative effect on fertility because it reduces the probability of intercourse.…”

“…For instance, in order to explain the so-called Iniesta generation (i.e., the spike in number of births in the Barcelona area nine months after Iniesta's goal against Chelsea in 2009) Montesinos et al (2013, p. 6) argue that "heightened euphoria following a victory can cultivate hedonic sensations that result in intimate celebrations, of which unplanned births may be a consequence." Discussing the Super Bowl Babies, Hayward and Rybińska (2017) do not limit their explanation to a rise in unplanned births. They argue for a more general heightened propensity for intercourse, also among the couples who were already planning to have a baby.…”

“…A common explanation for the link between sport results, mood and fertility lies in what Hayward and Rybińska (2017) label "celebratory intercourse." For instance, in order to explain the so-called Iniesta generation (i.e., the spike in number of births in the Barcelona area nine months after Iniesta's goal against Chelsea in 2009) Montesinos et al (2013, p. 6) argue that "heightened euphoria following a victory can cultivate hedonic sensations that result in intimate celebrations, of which unplanned births may be a consequence."…”