Super‐Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of rainfall in a model squall line

Singleton, Andrew; Toumi, Ralf

doi:10.1002/qj.1919

Cited by 83 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The CC or below CC rates are mainly followed by long, synoptic, colder rain, while the super CC is mainly found in short-lived, warmer convective rain (Panthou et al, 2014;Lenderink et al, 2011;Mishra et al, 2012;Singleton and Toumi, 2013).…”

Section: The P I -T D Relationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Manola

Hurk

Moel

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a "future weather" scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the P i -T d relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The P i -T d method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.

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Section: The P I -T D Relationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Manola

Hurk

Moel

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Observations [Lenderink and van Meijgaard, 2008] and recent simulations [Singleton and Toumi, 2012] have suggested that convective precipitation intensity may react in a substantially different way to temperature changes than is the case for stratiform precipitation. This hypothesis was recently backed by observational support for a midlatitude region by Berg et al [2013].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probing the precipitation life cycle by iterative rain cell tracking

Moseley

Berg

Haerter³

2013

JGR Atmospheres

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[1] Monitoring the life cycle of convective rain cells requires a Lagrangian viewpoint where the observer moves with the dominant background flow. To adopt such a moving reference frame, we design, validate, and apply a simple rain cell tracking method-which we term iterative rain cell tracking (IRT)-for spatio-temporal precipitation data. IRT iteratively identifies the formation and dissipation of rain cells and determines the large-scale flow. The iteration is repeated until reaching convergence. As validated using reanalysis wind speeds, repeated iterations lead to substantially increased agreement of the background flow field and an increased number of complete tracks. Our method is thereby able to monitor the growth and intensity profiles of rain cells and is applied to a high-resolution (5 min and 1 1 km 2 ) data set of radar-derived rainfall intensities over Germany. We then combine this data set with surface temperature observations and synoptic observations to group tracks according to convective and stratiform conditions. Convective tracks show clear life cycles in intensity, with peaks shifted off-center toward the beginning of the track, whereas stratiform tracks have comparatively featureless intensity profiles. Our results show that the convective life cycle can lead to convection-dominating precipitation extremes at short time scales, while track-mean intensities may vary much less between the two types. The observed features become more pronounced as surface temperature increases, and in the case of convection even exceeded the rates expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.Citation: Moseley, C., P. Berg, and J. O. Haerter (2013), Probing the precipitation life cycle by iterative rain cell tracking,

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“…In the French Mediterranean region, Drobinski et al (2016) showed that the scaling of precipitation extreme displays a hook-like shape with a nearly CC-scaling at low temperatures and a negative slope at high temperatures, which they attribute to the arid environment in summer. Deviations from the CC scaling have been observed or simulated for several reasons such as precipitation accumulation duration (Utsumi et al 2011;Drobinski et al 2016), use of surface air temperature as a proxy of the tropospheric temperature (Hardwick Jones et al 2010;Drobinski et al 2016), change in precipitation type Berg and Haerter 2013), changes in the atmospheric dynamics (O'Gorman and Schneider 2009;Sugiyama et al 2010;Singleton and Toumi 2013;Muller 2013) which may be related to seasonal variability Drobinski et al 2016). Hence, the applicability of the CC scaling on the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship is still uncertain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

et al. 2016

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temperature-precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius-Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature-precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 °C in the western Mediterranean to <10 °C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to oceanatmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070-2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. AbstractIn this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979-2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà. 3The slope of the simulated future temperature-precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region.

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Super‐Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of rainfall in a model squall line

Cited by 83 publications

References 15 publications

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Probing the precipitation life cycle by iterative rain cell tracking

Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

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