Superdelegate Decision Making during the 2008 Democratic Primaries

Abstract

The race for superdelegate support during the extended competition between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination offers a unique opportunity to examine the behavior of party elites with regard to their party's rank and file. The choice and timing of superdelegates' endorsements were examined, as well as measures of superdelegate loyalty, enthusiasm, considerations of candidate viability, and strategic endorsements. Did superdelegates endorse candidates based on personal or political ties, or to settle old political scores, as much of the press coverage suggested? Did superdelegates try to hijack the nomination for a candidate other than the one preferred by party rank-and-file participants in primaries and caucuses? We find that, taken in the aggregate, superdelegate endorsements were based on systematic considerations about candidates' standing as measured by national opinion polling, state support for candidates, and the candidate delegate count. Furthermore, female superdelegates showed more enthusiastic support for Clinton, while elected officials who were superdelegates were more likely to support Obama.

Gender and Race in Congressional National News Media Appearances in 2008

“…Is it simply that these representatives endorsed candidates and therefore took to the airwaves to support them? In addition to interest in black representatives supporting Clinton, white female members of Congress were early and strong supporters of her candidacy, so it is possible that Clinton endorsers were driving these appearances simply because they were acting as campaign surrogates for the more beleaguered candidate over the course of a long primary season (Galdieri, Parsneau, and Granberg-Rademacker 2012). To test this alternative, Model 3 in Table 1 includes an indicator of whether the member of Congress originally endorsed Clinton, compared to those who endorsed Obama, Edwards, or made no endorsement.…”

“…In 2008, members of Congress balanced reelection goals and district concerns, institutional influence, career goals, the dynamics of the nomination contest, and policy goals in their decision of whom to endorse (Anderson 2013; Hasecke, Meinke, and Scott 2012). However, unlike previous years, gender also predicted endorsement of Clinton, with white women more likely to endorse Clinton than white men (Galdieri, Parsneau, and Granberg-Rademacker 2012). Reflecting broader voting trends, though many black representatives endorsed Clinton early, black voters were more cohesive in their support for Obama than female voters were for Clinton (Dolan 2014; Huddy and Carey 2009; Simien 2009).…”