Supervised temporal link prediction in large-scale real-world networks

Abstract

Link prediction is a well-studied technique for inferring the missing edges between two nodes in some static representation of a network. In modern day social networks, the timestamps associated with each link can be used to predict future links between so-far unconnected nodes. In these so-called temporal networks, we speak of temporal link prediction. This paper presents a systematic investigation of supervised temporal link prediction on 26 temporal, structurally diverse, real-world networks ranging from thousands to a million nodes and links. We analyse the relation between global structural properties of each network and the obtained temporal link prediction performance, employing a set of well-established topological features commonly used in the link prediction literature. We report on four contributions. First, using temporal information, an improvement of prediction performance is observed. Second, our experiments show that degree disassortative networks perform better in temporal link prediction than assortative networks. Third, we present a new approach to investigate the distinction between networks modelling discrete events and networks modelling persistent relations. Unlike earlier work, our approach utilises information on all past events in a systematic way, resulting in substantially higher link prediction performance. Fourth, we report on the influence of the temporal activity of the node or the edge on the link prediction performance, and show that the performance differs depending on the considered network type. In the studied information networks, temporal information on the node appears most important. The findings in this paper demonstrate how link prediction can effectively be improved in temporal networks, explicitly taking into account the type of connectivity modelled by the temporal edge. More generally, the findings contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms behind the evolution of networks.