Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China

Abstract

In the past two decades, the use of grain to feed livestock in China has increased rapidly. A number of studies have examined demand and supply of grain for animal feed in China. Forecasts have been made. Generally, these projections have turned out to be well wide of the actual supply and demand. Further, forecasts of supply and demand for feed grains for the same time periods have differed greatly. Accurate forecasts of variables affecting supply and demand benefit both producers and consumers. Past forecasts of supply and demand of feed grain for livestock production in China are reviewed and reasons for discrepancies between projections are explored. Ways to improve projections of demand for and supply of grain for livestock feed in China are identified. Copyright (c) 2008 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Feed Grain Demand of Dairy Cows in China

“…The Geo-Detector method aims to identify the degree of impact by the different factors on the spatial distribution pattern of DCFG demand. Based on previous studies [7,8,25,42] and the available data, this study focused on four main elements: resource endowment, feeding scale, feeding technology, and market environment. A total of nine individual factors were taken into consideration, which were corn yield (X1), soybean yield (X2), pastoral area (X3), year-end number of dairy cows (X4), the proportion of large-scale farms with more than 100 dairy cows (X5), the proportion of mechanized milking in large-scale dairy farms (X6), the average dairy milk yield per cow (X7), the At the provincial level, the north-south spatial differences in provincial DCFG demand were significant.…”

“…The main data of this study were sourced from official statistics. Some Chinese statistics are known to be unreliable, while the research on milk yield is considered accurate [7]. In many cases, unreliable data may be used due to the lack of better information sources.…”

“…Extensive research has been done on the topic of supply and demand of feed grain in China. Many scholars believe that both sectors of supply and demand of feed grain are rising, yet the feed grain supply is lagging behind the increase in demand [4,7,22,23]. On the other hand, some scholars strongly believe that the demand of feed grain will decrease with the change in population structure [28].…”

“…Most existing research adopted the national average of feed grain conversion ratio for calculating the DCFG demand, which is not precise enough for either temporal or spatial levels [7,17]. Feed grain conversion ratio is the ratio measuring the efficiency that the bodies of livestock convert feed grain into the desired output [24,26].…”

“…However, China's per capita share of meat, egg, and milk consumption is still far less when compared with developed countries such as the United States of America, Australia, etc., and it is predicted that the population's appetite for meat, egg, and milk products will push this growth even higher [5]. Thus, the increasing demand for livestock products has led to an increasing demand for feed grains [6,7]. It is estimated that the feed grain demand in 2020 and 2030 will account for 50% and 55%, respectively, of the total Chinese grain demand [5], and therefore, feed grain supply will be a major challenge to China's grain security [8,9].…”