Supply chain network optimization for emergency materials considering demand satisfaction

Abstract

In order to effectively guarantee the smooth supply of emergency materials under public health emergencies, first, we predict the number of daily infected people based on the modified SEIRD infectious disease dynamics model and accordingly construct the dynamic demand prediction model of emergency materials so as to catch the change rule of the demand for emergency materials with greater precision. Subsequently, under the premise of demand satisfaction, we optimize the supply chain network of emergency materials and embed two insurance strategies in the supply system in advance: multi‐source purchase and buffer production capacity, to enhance the stability of supply chain by sacrificing part of the cost. Next, a bi‐objective linear programming model based on minimizing system cost and maximizing demand satisfaction is proposed with the intention of realizing the design of emergency materials supply chain network, which balances the risk and cost. Finally, through the analysis of the example, we find that compared with the traditional supply chain network of emergency materials, the total satisfaction rate of the supply chain network optimized by balancing cost and risk is increased by 11.70%, while the cost is increased by only 2.04%, which fully verifies the validity of the optimized design of supply chain network of emergency materials.