Supply Inadequacy Risk Evaluation of Stand-Alone Renewable Powered Heat-Electricity Energy Systems: A Data-Driven Robust Approach

Abstract

Integration of heat and electricity supply improves the overall energy efficiency and system operational flexibility. The renewable powered heat-electricity energy system is a promising way to set up residential energy supply facilities in remote areas beyond the reach of power system infrastructures. However, the volatility of wind and solar energy brings about the risk of supply inadequacy. This paper proposes a data-driven robust method to quantify two measures of such a risk in the stand-alone renewable powered heat-electricity energy system. The uncertainty of renewable generation is modeled through a family of ambiguous probability distributions around an empirical one based on the Wasserstein metric; then the probability of heat and electricity load shedding during a short period and related penalty cost are discussed. Through a polyhedral characterization of renewable power feasible region, the load shedding probability under the Wasserstein ambiguity set comes down to a linear program. With a piecewise linear optimal value function of the penalty cost, its expectation under the worstcase distribution in the Wasserstein ambiguity set also gives rise to a linear program. The proposed method requires moderate information on renewable generation and makes full use of available data, while sustains computational tractability. The evaluation result is robust against the inaccuracy of renewable power distributions. Case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

A Comprehensive Performance Evaluation of Chinese Energy Supply Chain under “Double-Carbon” Goals Based on AHP and Three-Stage DEA

“…In this paper, for the analysis of energy production and treatment, the indicators are selected from three aspects: production and treatment efficiency, pollutant discharge and residual energy recovery after production. After consulting the literature and considering all feasible indicators comprehensively, we selected "energy processing conversion efficiency," "carbon emission rate per unit output," and "energy recovery rate," respectively, to reflect them [45][46][47][48][49].…”

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Research on Low-Carbon Energy Sharing through the Alliance of Integrated Energy Systems with Multiple Uncertainties

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