Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

Abstract

Why do some countries host more refugees than others? Previous research has focused on the role of geographical, political, and economic determinants, and little attention has been paid to civil conflict dynamics. In this article, I examine how a host country’s support for rebel groups may affect the number of refugees that it accommodates. Countries that support rebels host a higher number of refugees than others, as accommodating refugees can be the continuation of that support and help rebel groups in their armed struggle. By hosting people, countries may offer a sanctuary from which rebels can operate some of their insurgent activities. Rebel groups can exploit these camps for recruitment, training, and benefiting from the main services such as health care. In addition, when rebels operate in host countries, these countries may monitor, impact, or even direct the strategies of insurgent groups. Analysis of refugee flows between 1968 and 2011 suggests that countries which support rebel groups host twice as many refugees as others. Results are robust to various model specifications, two different sources for the main explanatory variable, matching analysis, and additional checks. Findings of this article highlight the importance of conflict dynamics in explaining the variation in refugee flows.

Geo-political rivalry and anti-immigrant sentiment. A conjoint experiment in 22 countries

“…In this study, we focus exclusively on migrants, rather than refugees. We note here, however, that our intuition is supported by recent research on the reception of refugees by host governments: Governments are more willing to accept refugees from rival countries than from allied countries (Moorthy and Brathwaite 2019;Chu 2020;Jackson and Atkinson 2019), because refugees fleeing adversarial states can be regarded as allies, especially if a host country supports rebel groups operating on the rival's territory (Turkoglu 2022) or if the rival country adheres to a hostile political ideology (Jackson and Atkinson 2019). We are not aware of any research that explores this conjecture with regard to the attitudes of citizens, the focus of our analysis, rather than government policy.…”

Social Instability in Fragile State Context: Exploring the Dynamics Between Syrian Refugees and the Lebanese Host Community in Lebanon

“…The struggle over available resources has been evaluated, showing it is crucial in influencing the local population’s perception of refugees (Baylouny & Klingseis, 2018; Martin, 2005) and the intersection between demographic growth and environmental issues (Goldstone, 2001). Personal experiences of individuals in host communities have been studied to understand better whether or not they imply openness toward refugees (Braithwaite et al, 2019), and several studies showed that threats toward security issues constitute a considerable variable in understanding the local populations’ behavior toward refugees (Böhmelt, Bove, & Gleditsch, 2019; Gleditsch, 2007; Rüegger, 2019; Salehyan & Gleditsch, 2006; Turkoglu, 2022).…”

Refugees from Ukraine in Poland—Differentiation of spatial distribution and impact on demographic structures

“…Bocker & Havinga, 1997). Nevertheless, their choices depend on a number of other factors that determine the spatial distribution of refugees, that is, why some countries accept more refugees than others (Moore & Shellman, 2007; Turkoglu, 2022). These are primarily economic factors (level of development of the target country, salary levels, labour market size and diversity: Adhikari, 2012; Kang, 2021; Moore & Shellman, 2007), as well as formal and political ones (target country's migration policy and restrictions on the admission of refugees: Czaika & de Haas, 2017).…”

“…Undoubtedly, the influx of such huge numbers of refugees over such a short timespan poses enormous social, economic and organisational challenges (Jackson & Atkinson, 2019;Turkoglu, 2022) mainly for the countries of first contact, that is, Ukraine's land neighbours (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova).…”

“…It is estimated that the war has forced about 13 million people to leave their homes (IOM, 2022), six million of whom have fled from Ukraine, most of them to Poland—3.2 million people (data as at 8 May 2022; UNHCR, 2022a). Undoubtedly, the influx of such huge numbers of refugees over such a short timespan poses enormous social, economic and organisational challenges (Jackson & Atkinson, 2019; Turkoglu, 2022) mainly for the countries of first contact, that is, Ukraine's land neighbours (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova).…”