Surface Drift and Dispersion in a Multiply Connected Fjord System

Blanken, Hauke; Hannah, Charles G.; Klymak, Jody M.; Juhasz, T.

doi:10.1029/2019jc015425

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The crisp forcing field can be similarly derived by combining the modelled forcing fields according to Equation (7). Finally, the individual time series of model-observation differences may be combined according to Equation ( 7) and the result can be used to determine an appropriate value for D through yardstick or other fractal analysis [36,40,44,45].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Propagating Particle Tracking Uncertainty Defined by Fuzzy Numbers in Spatially Variable Velocity Fields

Blanken,

Valeo,

Hannah

et al. 2023

JMSE

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Accurate prediction of the trajectories of material drifting on the ocean surface is critical for risk assessment and responses to environmental emergencies. Prediction of these trajectories is subject to uncertainty arising from a number of sources, with a primary source being uncertainty in the modelled ocean surface currents and winds used as input to the trajectory model. This article presents a fuzzy number-based algorithm for propagating uncertainty through a particle tracking scheme in a time- and space-varying velocity field. The performance of the algorithm was tested by applying it to idealized, analytical velocity fields and scoring the results against the analytical solution. Both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty were considered and combined using a fractional Brownian motion model for temporal autocorrelation of the uncertainty. In the evaluation of the algorithm, sensitivity was quantified with respect to parameters such as timestep size, resolution of the forcing velocity field, spatial and temporal gradients in the forcing, and resolution of the applied uncertainty. Parameter values optimizing uncertainty representation and computational cost were identified. The applied uncertainty was found to evolve in agreement with classical relative dispersion relationships.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Propagating Particle Tracking Uncertainty Defined by Fuzzy Numbers in Spatially Variable Velocity Fields

Blanken,

Valeo,

Hannah

et al. 2023

JMSE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Numerous oceanographic drifter and simulation studies in the region have found significant spatial and temporal differences in coastal hydrodynamics due to seasonal variation in wind and river discharge (Masson & Fine 2012, Halverson & Pawlowicz 2016, Pawlowicz et al 2019, Blanken et al 2020). These seasonal differences have been shown to alter predicted connectivity (Xuereb et al 2018, Cristiani et al 2021.…”

Section: Predicting Dispersal Distance From Mpas To Aid Future Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying marine larval dispersal to assess MPA network connectivity and inform future national and transboundary planning efforts

Cristiani

Rubidge

Thompson

et al. 2023

Preprint

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A Marine Protected Area (MPA) network, in which multiple reserves are designated in a region, can promote the protection of biodiversity across space. To be effective as a network, the design must consider whether MPAs are likely to be connected through the movement of individuals of species of interest. Additionally, network design may explicitly incorporate design features that promote biodiversity in unprotected habitats through the dispersal or spillover of multiple species. Patterns of dispersal and the ability of MPAs to function as an interacting network, however, are difficult to estimate at broad and transboundary spatial scales, and therefore connectivity is often not fully integrated in the design and assessment of MPA networks. Here, we model the dispersal of multiple nearshore species to estimate the potential connectivity of the existing MPAs in British Columbia, Canada, including connections to MPAs in the United States by simulating dispersal using a biophysical model with regional oceanographic currents. We found that MPAs in BC potentially meet connectivity design criteria for nearshore invertebrate species: the majority of MPAs (65-90%) are likely to exchange individuals (i.e. functional connectivity) and support persistent metapopulations, and more than half the unprotected coast (55-85%) receives a large proportion of the larvae produced in MPAs. Furthermore, we found that species' dispersal abilities and the level of exposure of an MPA to open ocean can predict dispersal distance when we account for the random effects of dispersal location and season. Therefore, future predictions of connectivity are possible based on these core biological and physical attributes, without running new simulations. Together, these analyses provide a robust and novel assessment of multi-species connectivity that can support the design of new MPAs with transboundary connectivity on the northwest coast of North America.

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Retention and dispersion of buoyant plastic debris in a well-mixed estuary from drifter observations

Chen

Bowen

et al. 2022

Marine Pollution Bulletin

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Surface Drift and Dispersion in a Multiply Connected Fjord System

Cited by 8 publications

References 48 publications

Propagating Particle Tracking Uncertainty Defined by Fuzzy Numbers in Spatially Variable Velocity Fields

Propagating Particle Tracking Uncertainty Defined by Fuzzy Numbers in Spatially Variable Velocity Fields

Quantifying marine larval dispersal to assess MPA network connectivity and inform future national and transboundary planning efforts

Retention and dispersion of buoyant plastic debris in a well-mixed estuary from drifter observations

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