Background
We recently developed and validated a prognostic model that accurately predicts the 2-year risk of emergent gallstone-related hospitalization in older patients presenting with symptomatic gallstones.
Study Design
We used 100% Texas Medicare data (2000-2011) to identify patients 66 and older with initial episode of symptomatic gallstones not requiring emergency hospitalization. At presentation, we calculated each patient's risk of 2-year gallstone-related emergent hospitalization using the previously validated model. Patients were placed into the following risk groups based on model estimates: <30%, 30-<60%, and ≥60%. Within each risk group, we calculated the percent of elective cholecystectomies (≤2.5 months from initial episode) performed.
Results
161,568 patients had an episode of symptomatic gallstones. The mean age was 76.5±7.3 years and 59.9% were female. The risk of 2-year risk of gallstone-related hospitalizations increased from 15.9% to 41.5% to 65.2% across risk groups. For the overall cohort, 22.3% in the low-risk group, 20.9% in the moderate-risk group, and 23.2% in the high-risk group underwent elective cholecystectomy in the 2.5 months after the initial symptomatic episode. In patients with no comorbidities, elective cholecystectomy rates decreased from 34.2% in the low-risk group to 26.7% in the high-risk group. In patients who did not undergo cholecystectomy, only 9.5% were seen by a surgeon in the 2.5 months following the initial episode.
Conclusions
The risk of recurrent acute biliary symptoms requiring hospitalization has no influence, or even a paradoxical negative influence, on the decision to perform elective cholecystectomy after an initial symptomatic episode. Translation of the risk prediction model into clinical practice can better align treatment with risk and improve outcomes in older patients with symptomatic gallstones.