Surrogate Model Development for Coastal Dune Erosion Under Storm Conditions

MALAGÓN-SANTOS, VíCTOR; Wahl, Thomas; Long, Joseph W.; Passeri, Davina L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

doi:10.1142/9789811204487_0116

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Future studies should explore the use of other approaches that provide a cost-effective, yet reliable projection of coastal erosion response to climate change. Data-driven, surrogate models for coastal erosion are a potential candidate for use in erosion hazard studies 36,37 . These models need to be carefully developed, given that they are only as accurate as the data used to train them.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physics-based modeling of climate change impact on hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards

2023

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Coastal erosion is an adverse impact of extreme water levels during major hurricanes. A warmer climate is expected to increase storm surge and wave hazards due to hurricane climatology change (HCC) and sea level rise (SLR). We conduct physics-based morphodynamic modeling to quantify the regional impacts of HCC and SLR on erosion hazards to sandy beaches and dunes along the barrier islands of New Jersey in the United States. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find a substantial increase in erosion hazards from the late-20th-century to late-21st-century. The regionally averaged 100-year eroded volume of beach-dune systems would increase by 58 and 84%, respectively, under the HCC and HCC + SLR scenarios. Our projections show a large spatial variability in future changes to erosion hazards, suggesting that, in addition to HCC and SLR, the morphological characteristics of beach-dune systems play an important role in the impacts of climate change on coastal erosion.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%