Survival and local recruitment are driven by environmental carry-over effects from the wintering area in a migratory seabird

Abstract

We estimated annual apparent survival rates, as well as local recruitment rates in different age groups and for different breeding status in the common tern Sterna hirundo using mark-recapture analysis on a long-term individual-based dataset from a breeding colony in Germany. Strong inter-annual variability in survival rates became apparent, especially in prospectors. Local recruitment also varied strongly between years and age groups. To explain these fluctuations, we linked survival and recruitment estimates to several environmental covariates expected to be limiting during the wintering period and migration, including the global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation, fish abundance indices, and marine primary productivity in the West African wintering area. Contrary to expectations, global indices did not seem to be linked strongly to vital rates. Results showed that primary productivity had the strongest effect on annual survival, especially in young and inexperienced individuals. Primary productivity in the wintering area was also strongly associated with the probability of recruitment in the following breeding season, indicating that conditions during winter can have carry-over effects on the life cycle of individuals.

Sooty tern (Onychoprion fuscatus) survival, oil spills, shrimp fisheries, and hurricanes

“…Although our average estimate of mortality (0.16) is higher than the 0.09 found by Feare & Doherty Jr (2004) in sooty terns in the Seychelles, it is within the range of mortalities generated by similar models for inshore species such as common terns ( Sterna hirundo, 0.12–0.24, Breton et al 2004, 0.065–0.209, Szostek & Becker, 2015), least terns ( Sternula antillarum , 0.07–0.20, Renken & Smith, 1995), and roseate terns ( Sterna dougallii, 0.09–0.26, Spendelow et al, 1995). Nonetheless, our highest estimate of mortality (0.41 in 1973) is higher than the highest reported tern mortality we found (0.34 for the sandwich tern, Thalasseus sandvicensis , Møller, 1983).…”

“…Unfortunately, as with many catastrophes, data collection does not happen until after the incident occurs, so we must compare the past Deepwater Horizon incident with present telemetry data to determine the potential overlap such a future spill might incur. Although many studies have looked at the annual survival and dispersal of other terns (Coulson & Horobin, 1976; Møller, 1983; Renken & Smith, 1995; Spendelow et al, 1995; Nisbet & Cam, 2002; Szostek & Becker, 2012; Breton et al, 2014; Szostek & Becker, 2015), there are few, if any, capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies that include telemetry data and are specific to sooty terns. There are no previous such studies for this colony.…”

Response of young and adult birds to the same environmental variables and different spatial scales during post breeding period

“…This period is critical for animals (Paradis et al 1998(Paradis et al , 1999: juveniles must cope with novel environments, compete with more experienced adults for resources and, as a probable consequence, usually have lower survival rates than adults (Greenwood and Harvey 1976). Typically, the most crucial problem for juvenile birds at this time is to find sufficient food resources so as to survive over the winter (Szostek and Becker 2015).…”

Adult Survival and Breeding Dispersal of Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) in a Declining Population

“…Similarly, Roseate Terns have disappeared from the southern part of their Northwest Atlantic breeding range, but may have stabilized farther north . Because Common Terns breeding all along the Atlantic coast of North America mix during the nonbreeding season (Nisbet 2002;Nisbet et al 2011), it is unlikely that the regional declines reflect increases in wintering mortality or carry-over effects from poor environmental conditions away from the breeding grounds (Szostek and Becker 2015).…”