Survival of Ministers and Configuration of Cabinets in Chile and Uruguay

L., Alejandro Olivares

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-92802-5

Cited by 9 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…In the case of a popular president with a high chance of reelection, ministers have no incentives to migrate to the opposition. Social pressure on a government is another important feature that can make the president change the cabinet in response to the mobilization of civil society (Camerlo and Pérez-Liñán 2015;Olivares 2022). For this reason we include in the models the annual frequency of popular demonstrations against the government.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Foreign Policy Specificity: An Analysis of Ministerial Survival in Latin America, 1945–2020

Feliú Ribeiro,

López Burian

2023

Lat Am Polit Soc

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This research note analyzes the incentives of different types of policy areas for a president to keep or dismiss a minister. It uses ministerial survival analysis to compare foreign and domestic policy areas, focusing on comparable and analogous presidential decisions among countries and portfolios. The research utilizes ministerial survival data for education, finance, health, and foreign policy between 1945 and 2020 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. Using Cox regression models, we find that a foreign policy portfolio has a positive effect on ministerial survival, but the specificity of this portfolio does not hold for autocratic governments. Autocracies show higher levels of ministerial survival in all four portfolios, but a foreign policy portfolio is no more stable than domestic portfolios. Democratic presidents have the incentive to signal stability to the international audience, preserving the foreign policy portfolio from the frequent ministerial changes in domestic portfolios.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…;Olivares 2022), has previous political experience in elective positions, and has technical expertise in the portfolio area(Camerlo 2013;Dargent 2014; Sosa Villagarcia 2014;González Bustamante and Olivares 2016;Bäck et al 2021). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Foreign Policy Specificity: An Analysis of Ministerial Survival in Latin America, 1945–2020

Feliú Ribeiro,

López Burian

2023

Lat Am Polit Soc

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“…8 Para un estudio que abarca un período de tiempo más extenso y en perspectiva comparada con el caso uruguayo véase Olivares (2022).…”

Section: Demostraciones Econométricas Y Datos Utilizadosunclassified

“…Posteriormente, se ofrece información de los datos utilizados y de las demostraciones econométricas. Los conjuntos de datos que se utilizan corresponden a distintas bases de élites chilenas, principalmente la Encuesta de Élites en Chile (1990Chile ( -2010, actualizada por Joignant y González-Bustamante (2014), y el conjunto de datos de González-Bustamante y Olivares (2022). Luego, se explica de forma separada la aplicación de cada técnica y se discuten sus potencialidades, posibles sesgos e innovaciones.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Métodos cuantitativos para estudiar a las élites: Aplicaciones prácticas, sesgos y potencialidades

González‐Bustamante

2022

Preprint

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Este trabajo metodológico discute aplicaciones prácticas, ventajas y desventajas del análisis histórico de eventos o de supervivencia en comparación con estrategias econométricas clásicas en ciencias sociales como las regresiones logísticas binarias. En consecuencia, se analiza cuándo el enfoque de supervivencia es conveniente en comparación con modelos logísticos y cuáles son los riesgos de trabajar con datos observacionales y estimaciones potencialmente sesgadas. Para responder ambas preguntas se realizan dos demostraciones econométricas con técnicas de propensión y emparejamiento para analizar el efecto de la trayectoria y vínculos empresariales en el acceso y permanencia en posiciones políticas relevantes. Para esto se utiliza la Encuesta de Élites en Chile (1990-2010) y un conjunto de datos de ministros que desempeñaron su cargo entre 1990 y 2014. Los hallazgos evidencian que la trayectoria empresarial no tiene mayor impacto en el acceso a posiciones relevantes, sin embargo, si está asociada con un menor riesgo de ser removido del gabinete. Las demostraciones econométricas muestran que el análisis de supervivencia es útil para fenómenos que implican intervalos de tiempo, mientras que las regresiones logísticas resultan pertinentes para estudiar el acceso a posiciones siempre que el muestreo sea adecuado. También se evidencian diferencias significativas entre modelos sin ajustes o placebos y modelos con mejores especificaciones o estimados después de la aplicación del algoritmo de emparejamiento.

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“…This notwithstanding, Dowding and Dumont's work did inspire a wealth of related research on ministerial turnover, a considerable proportion of which is of an unquestionable comparative nature and immediately relevant for understanding specific aspects of reshuffles (see, e.g. Bäck et al 2012Bäck et al , 2016Camerlo and Martínez-Gallardo 2018;Camerlo and Pérez-Liñán 2015;Curtin et al 2022;Field 2021;Fischer et al 2012;Nielsen 2022;Olivares L. 2022).…”

Section: Towards a Comparative Politics Of Cabinet Reshufflesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Comparative Politics of Cabinet Reshuffles

Helms

Vercesi²

2022

Gov. & oppos.

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This special collection is devoted to cabinet reshuffles, which are understood as personnel-related changes within the lifetime of a cabinet. Scholars agree that cabinet reshuffles matter in many respects. To begin, they may shape intra-governmental relations, by either intensifying or helping solve cabinet conflicts. Further, they are important instruments for party leaders to promote or demote party representatives, with far-reaching possible consequences for the party and beyond. Last but not least, reshuffles may be used to increase governmental efficiency and often trigger policy change. The ever-increasing personalization of politics has fuelled the public interest in any ministerial personnel-related issues, and turned cabinet reshuffles into events of undisputed political and scholarly relevance. Despite the apparent importance and ubiquity of reshuffles, the international literature displays at least two major flaws: first, a lack of systematic comparison across countries and regimes and second, a strong notional and empirical bias towards Westminster democracies. This collection seeks to overcome these weaknesses and their limiting effects on the knowledge and understanding of key aspects of executive politics and executive–legislative relations. With that aim, it gathers novel comparative research on the different types, causes and effects of cabinet reshuffles in a variety of democratic and authoritarian systems. The theoretical approaches and empirical findings of the six articles featured mark a major contribution to the scholarship on political executives and executive elites in the contemporary world. This introductory piece offers a succinct historical overview of cabinet reshuffles in different contexts, and the study thereof.

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Survival of Ministers and Configuration of Cabinets in Chile and Uruguay

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Foreign Policy Specificity: An Analysis of Ministerial Survival in Latin America, 1945–2020

Foreign Policy Specificity: An Analysis of Ministerial Survival in Latin America, 1945–2020

Métodos cuantitativos para estudiar a las élites: Aplicaciones prácticas, sesgos y potencialidades

The Comparative Politics of Cabinet Reshuffles

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