Survival of the Systems

Lenton, Timothy M.; Kohler, Timothy A.; Marquet, Pablo A.; Boyle, Richard A.; Crucifix, Michel; Wilkinson, David M.; Scheffer, Marten

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2020.12.003

Cited by 40 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 101 publications

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“…Recent proposals suggested that adaptive evolution and selection operates through non-reproducing self-perpetuating planetary feedback loops [ 49 , 50 ] and that in general feedback loops are key for climate dynamics, and hence Earth complexity. However, mechanisms of feedback self-regulation have been described on so-far lifeless planets, such as Mars [ 51 , 52 ], and seen as stabilizing the surface temperature of a lifeless Earth [ 53 ].…”

Section: Properties and Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earth’s Complexity Is Non-Computable: The Limits of Scaling Laws, Nonlinearity and Chaos

Rubin

Crucifix

2021

Entropy

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Current physics commonly qualifies the Earth system as ‘complex’ because it includes numerous different processes operating over a large range of spatial scales, often modelled as exhibiting non-linear chaotic response dynamics and power scaling laws. This characterization is based on the fundamental assumption that the Earth’s complexity could, in principle, be modeled by (surrogated by) a numerical algorithm if enough computing power were granted. Yet, similar numerical algorithms also surrogate different systems having the same processes and dynamics, such as Mars or Jupiter, although being qualitatively different from the Earth system. Here, I argue that understanding the Earth as a complex system requires a consideration of the Gaia hypothesis: the Earth is a complex system because it instantiates life—and therefore an autopoietic, metabolic-repair (M,R) organization—at a planetary scale. This implies that the Earth’s complexity has formal equivalence to a self-referential system that inherently is non-algorithmic and, therefore, cannot be surrogated and simulated in a Turing machine. I discuss the consequences of this, with reference to in-silico climate models, tipping points, planetary boundaries, and planetary feedback loops as units of adaptive evolution and selection.

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Section: Properties and Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earth’s Complexity Is Non-Computable: The Limits of Scaling Laws, Nonlinearity and Chaos

Rubin

Crucifix

2021

Entropy

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“…What can be accomplished when the parts are put together is typically far from obvious. (Bechtel, 2007, p.277) Lenton et al (2021) have recently argued that natural selection can occur in systems above reproducing individuals (e.g. ecosystems) based solely upon differential persistence.…”

Section: Evolutionary Innovations Via (Hierarchical) Systems Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary Innovation Viewed as Novel Physical Phenomena and Hierarchical Systems Building

Taylor

2021

Preprint

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“…Transformative change can happen in any sufficiently complex adaptive system (Levin, 1998) without anyone willing it to happen. It requires innovations occurring within a system that instigate feedback processes and are subject to some filtering or ‘selection’ process (Lenton et al, 2021). For example, in Earth history there were several pivotal ‘revolutions’ – meaning transformative changes in the identity and functioning of a complex system (here the Earth system) – long before humans evolved (Lenton & Watson, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability

Lenton

Benson²,

Smith³

et al. 2022

Glob. Sustain.

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104

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Transforming towards global sustainability requires a dramatic acceleration of social change. Hence, there is growing interest in finding 'positive tipping points' at which small interventions can trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks that accelerate systemic change. Examples have recently been seen in power generation and personal transport, but how can we identify positive tipping points that have yet to occur? We synthesise theory and examples to provide initial guidelines for creating enabling conditions, sensing when a system can be positively tipped, who can trigger it, and how they can trigger it. All of us can play a part in triggering positive tipping points.

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Survival of the Systems

Cited by 40 publications

References 101 publications

Earth’s Complexity Is Non-Computable: The Limits of Scaling Laws, Nonlinearity and Chaos

Earth’s Complexity Is Non-Computable: The Limits of Scaling Laws, Nonlinearity and Chaos

Evolutionary Innovation Viewed as Novel Physical Phenomena and Hierarchical Systems Building

Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability

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