Survival Rates and Prognostic Factors of COVID-19 Patients: A Registry-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by a newly identified coronavirus. Our knowledge about survival rate and prognostic factors of the disease is not established well. This study proposed to estimate the survival function of COVID-19 in western Iran.Methods: This retrospective cohort study was performed in Hamadan province, western Iran. The study included patients that referred to the provincial hospitals during 7 months period from February 20 to September 20, 2020. The follow up of each subject was calculated from the date of onset of respiratory symptoms to the date of death. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from patients’ medical records. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox regression were used for the analysis of the data. Results: The overall 1, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 49-day survival rate were 99.57%, 95.61%, 91.15%, 87.34%, 86.91%, and 86.74% respectively. A significant association was observed between survival time with age, gender, history of traveling to contaminated areas, co-morbidity, malignancies, and chronic diseases, and hospital units.Conclusion: Educational programs and access to healthcare could be implemented as modifiable factors to reduce the mortality rate and burden of this disease in COVID-19 patients.

Analysis of COVID-19 pandemics in Kazakhstan

“…Despite the relatively low level of registered mortality from coronavirus infection, it is necessary to take into account the vulnerability of the elderly population and the long-term effects on their health. In fact, the results of recent studies showed a greater risk of death and a low survival rate among the elderly, males, and those with comorbidities 53 .…”

Risk Factors for Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19, Southwestern of Iran; a cross-sectional study

“…Notably, with aging, the immune response to infectious agents becomes weaker, especially in the elderly, who are more susceptible to infection at its severe stage. Furthermore, underlying diseases, especially in older people, put them at more risk of developing COVID-19 associated with worse outcomes, such as death (4,14).…”

“…The results of recently performed meta-analyses in this regard have shown that underlying diseases, such as diabetes, coronary heart disease, and hypertension are the main prognostic factors of high mortality in patients with COVID-19 (5,6). Some studies conducted in Iran and the United States also confirmed age, gender, and underlying diseases as the main prognostic factors responsible for death risk (4,(7)(8)(9). Another meta-analysis indicated a relationship between tobacco use and high mortality rate among patients with COVID-19 (10).…”

“…Most people infected with COVID-19 mostly experience mild to moderate respiratory disease and recover with performing no special treatment (3). Older people and those with underlying diseases, such as chronic respiratory disease, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancer are more at the risk of severe illness and death, compared to normal people (3,4). The results of recently performed meta-analyses in this regard have shown that underlying diseases, such as diabetes, coronary heart disease, and hypertension are the main prognostic factors of high mortality in patients with COVID-19 (5,6).…”