Suspicious Minds: Unexpected Election Outcomes, Perceived Electoral Integrity and Satisfaction With Democracy in American Presidential Elections

Abstract

A great amount of research has noted the existence of a gap between election winners and losers in relation to perceptions of electoral fairness and satisfaction with democracy. One aspect of the winner–loser gap that has been overlooked is the impact of citizens’ expectations about election outcomes on these attitudes. More precisely, how do citizens react to unexpected defeats and victories? Are individuals on the losing side less critical of the electoral process or dissatisfied with democracy when they recognize beforehand that their favourite party or candidate was likely to be defeated? Does experiencing a surprise victory lead to a boost in perceived electoral integrity or democratic satisfaction? To answer these questions, I use data from the 1996, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020 ANES. While there is little evidence that expectations exert a major influence on post-election attitudes, outcome unexpectedness seems to have decreased confidence in the vote counting process among losers, independents and even winners in the 2020 election. The results show the considerable influence that fraud claims and conspiracy theories can have on public opinion when elected officials and candidates push a consistent story line of electoral malfeasance and corruption in an effort to denigrate political opponents.

Who are the Election Skeptics? Evidence from the 2022 Midterm Elections

“…This underscores the importance of rival political candidates endorsing the legitimacy of the election results regardless of outcome. Refusal to concede and doubling down on election conspiracies exacerbates existing skepticism of election results (Mongrain, 2023;Piazza, 2022). Restoring the public's faith in democracy, therefore, might be as simple as candidates owning their own defeats, rather than using unfounded conspiracy theories as a salve for wounds to their ego from defeat.…”