Sustainability of the fiscal deficit in Turkey: evidence from cointegration and multicointegration tests

Kiran, Burcu

doi:10.1504/ijse.2011.037720

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…According to Leachman et al (2005), even if revenues and expenses cointegrate, it is possible that there is an increasing primary defi cit (for example, if the government only pays the interest on the debt). In this case, the fi scal policy remains out of control (see, for example, Kia [2008], Kia & Gardner [2011] and Kiran [2011]). Leachman et al (2005) show that, to investigate debt sustainability, it is necessary to consider not only the long-term relationship between revenues and expenses series, but also between these variables (accumulated) and the debt stock.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Campos

Cysne

2020

Estud. econ

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According to Bohn (1995), conventional econometric analysis of sustainability, based on unit root tests on the government debt-to-GDP series or cointegration analysis between revenues and expenses, are inconclusive to verify the sustainability of the fiscal policy. This paper uses the multicointegration method to investigatethe validity of a long-term relationship between the Brazilian government`s accumulated revenues and expenses and its debt, all expressed as a proportion of GDP. Leachman et al. (2005) argue that this technique allows concluding about the sustainability or not of fi scal policy. The present work considers specificationsthat allow evaluating the reaction of both accumulated revenues and expenses to changes in the debt-to-GDP, using monthly data from December 1997 to June 2018. We conclude that the Brazilian fiscal policy was unsustainable over the study period, due to the excessive government spending and its growing trajectory, mainly at the end of the sample.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Campos

Cysne

2020

Estud. econ

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“…As the analysis shows, government expenditures have a negative influence on the real GDP of Palestine. Contrary to the Keynesian approach, in which he suggested that government expenditures may enhance the employment rate and economic growth through more demand for goods (Abouelfarag and Qutb 2021), some studies show that government expenditures may lead to a fiscal deficit (Kiran 2011;Brady and Magazzino 2019). A country having more expenditure than its revenue may suffer from negative economic growth because it urges policy officials to enhance tax rates to meet the expenditure that can further impede the growth of various sectors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Nexus between Macroeconomic Factors and Economic Growth in Palestine: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

et al. 2022

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All countries are trying their best to achieve maximum economic prosperity through employing efficient economic strategies. Countries seem to be conscious of various factors that can potentially affect economic growth. Given that, the current study examines the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the economic growth of Palestine. By employing the large range of quarterly data spanning from 2001 to 2020, the statistical outputs of the ARDL model show that government debt, donations, government expenditures, and unemployment rate adversely impact economic growth. However, other factors including credit facilities, inflation, and total investments positively impinge upon the economic growth of Palestine. Such dynamic impacts of various macroeconomic factors display both the detrimental and growth-promoting role of macroeconomic factors in determining economic prosperity. Our analysis suggests various policy implications to economic policy officials regarding the effectiveness of various factors for economic health. It is further recommended that international agencies working in aid- and donation-intensive countries should design efficient economic policies that can help such economies in coming out from economic distress.

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“…Entre los estudios que analizan la sostenibilidad fiscal sin emplear reglas fiscales se encuentran los de Bohn (2007), quien mostró que si una política fiscal es compatible con una serie integrada de razón deuda/PIB de cualquier orden, resulta sostenible en el tiempo. De acuerdo con la experiencia reciente, esta situación puede ocurrir si el gobierno honra al menos los intereses de la deuda, pero sin reducir la relación déficit/ PIB (Kiran, 2011). Empíricamente la cuestión resulta debido a que o bien los ingresos y gastos públicos evolucionan juntos y no tienen una relación a largo plazo con la razón deuda/PIB (Quintos, 1995) o bien es posible que las series de ingresos y gastos estén cointegradas, pero que el déficit primario permanezca en una trayectoria ascendente, de modo que la deuda nunca se pague efectivamente (Leachman et al, 2005).…”

Section: Revision De La Literaturaunclassified

Posición fiscal, inversión publica y crecimiento económico. Una aplicación de regla fiscal para México

Hernandez-Mota

2022

RAE

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Sustainability of the fiscal deficit in Turkey: evidence from cointegration and multicointegration tests

Cited by 8 publications

References 28 publications

Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Sustainability of the Brazilian public debt: An analysis using multicointegration

Nexus between Macroeconomic Factors and Economic Growth in Palestine: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Posición fiscal, inversión publica y crecimiento económico. Una aplicación de regla fiscal para México

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