Sustainable development of the economy in the conditions of the energy crisis

Abstract

Purpose. To establish the factors of the impact of the energy crisis on the formation of a sustainable economy. To propose a method for forecasting the balance of energy production and consumption. To establish the level of correlation between sustainable development indicators and energy indicators. Methodology. Cognition methods were used to perform the work: analysis and synthesis to choose the topic and purpose of the study; content analysis for literature review; critical analysis to identify unsolved aspects of the problem and national characteristics of the crisis; the ascent from the abstract to the concrete to prove the relationship between the energy crisis and achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDG); system analysis to substantiate the need for energy balance and import substitution of energy resources; induction and deduction for the selection of SDGs, which are affected by the energy crisis and energy balance forecasting models, establishing the level of correlation with SDG indicators; idealization and formalization to identify factors inhibiting the formation of a sustainable economy. Findings. It is established that in addition to the global factors of the energy crisis, national economies have their own factors influencing the pace of achieving the SDG. The main reasons for the gap between energy production and consumption and trends in import substitution in the energy sector are indicated. The presence of direct and reverse effects of energy development and sustainable development is proved. It is established that the solution to the problem of sustainable economic development is to systematically ensure the dynamic balance of production and consumption of energy, and import substitution of energy resources. Originality. The reasons for reducing the level of relevance of forecasting and energy plan required to achieve the SDG are identified. There is a significant level of correlation between the Mtoe indicator and groups of SDG indicators and the fact that indicator of relative fluctuations as for average Mtoe is an integral indicator of the SDG achievement. Practical value. The MCDA method and a quantitative approach to its implementation are proposed to forecast energy consumption and to model sustainable development scenarios.