Sustainable sourcing: how to anticipate climate change? : guidance in identifying risks and opportunities of climate change for sustainable import of fruits and vegetables

Abstract

PrefaceThere is growing evidence that climate change will globally affect the production of fresh fruits and vegetables in the coming decades. Changing weather circumstances may lead to shifts in growing seasons, changes in quantitative or qualitative yield, or even different crops being produced. These changes will also have consequences for the sourcing and supply of commodities that are imported from elsewhere in the world. Climate change may increase or decrease the sustainability of production, e.g. by affecting the availability and use of resources, and ultimately lead to a shift in sourcing regions.While the potential impacts of climate change are obvious, it often appears difficult to translate generic insights into specific current practice of food supply chains. This complicates strategic decision-making and hinders anticipation of stakeholders on climate-induced risks and opportunities. Accordingly, there is a need for guidance in the identification of potential impacts of climate change, and the possible actions that stakeholders can take in anticipation of these impacts. This is particularly true for supply chains of fresh produce, due to its relatively short shelf-life, high quality requirements, and seasonality of supply.This report fulfils this need by presenting a generic approach for qualifying the impacts of a changing climate on production, marketing and trading of fruit and vegetables produced in African countries. The approach does not aim to support detailed, accurate prediction of impacts in time and space. Rather, it positions climate change in a dynamic physical, socio-economic and institutional environment, and offers guidance to stakeholders in defining their roles and responsibilities for achieving a sustainable supply chain that is resilient to climate change. The approach is illustrated by applying it to three case studies: oranges sourced in South-Africa, oranges sourced in Egypt, and green beans sourced in Kenya.