Sustainable Water and Land Management Under Global Change—The GLOWA Jordan River Project

Tielbӧrger, Katja; Claus, Cornelia; Schloz, Daniela; Twite, Robin; Al-Karablieh, Emad K.; Salman, Amer; Jayyousi, Anan; Alpert, Pinhas

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-25071-7_27

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 39 publications

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“…Annual precipitation will decrease in all regions with the exception of the southern Negev, by 12-29% in 2041-2060 and 20-37% in 2061-2080. Such results are consistent with the findings of previous climate studies in Israel (Alpert and Silverman 2003;Ben-Gai et al 1999;Tielbörger et al 2016). Full details on temperature and precipitation changes for each of the 15 regions are given in Appendix B.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetative Agriculture Markets in Israel

Zelingher

Ghermandi

Cian

et al. 2019

Environ Resource Econ

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We integrate the combined agricultural production effects of forecasted changes in CO 2 , temperature and precipitation into a multi-regional, country-wide partial equilibrium positive mathematical programming model. By conducting a meta-analysis of 2103 experimental observations from 259 agronomic studies we estimate production functions relating yields to CO 2 concentration and temperature for 55 crops. We apply the model to simulate climate change in Israel based on 15 agricultural production regions. Downscaled projections for CO 2 concentration, temperature and precipitation were derived from three general circulation models and four representative concentration pathways, showing temperature increase and precipitation decline throughout most of the county during the future periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Given the constrained regional freshwater and non-freshwater quotas, farmers will adapt by partial abandonment of agriculture lands, increasing focus on crops grown in controlled environments at the expense of open-field and rain-fed crops. Both agricultural production and prices decline, leading to reduced agricultural revenues; nevertheless, production costs reduce at a larger extent such that farming profits increase. As total consumer surplus also augments, overall social welfare rises. We find that this outcome is reversed if the positive fertilization effects of increased CO 2 concentrations are overlooked.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%