Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan

Abstract

The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Religion and contraceptive use in Kazakhstan: A study of mediating mechanisms

“…In terms of the mechanisms of the association between religious affiliation and contraceptive use, it was found that part of the effect of religious belonging was mediated through short-term fertility intentions. Based on previous studies of Kazakhstan that reveal ethnic differentials in fertility and different stages of demographic transition for the two ethnic and religious groups in the country, and thereby different levels of demand for children (Kan 2023), one could assume that mediation through fertility intentions would explain much more of the variation in contraceptive use between Muslims and Christians. However, despite having the strongest effect of all potential mediators for both women and men, it still explains only a fraction of the variation.…”

“…Only a few studies in Kazakhstan have focused on religion as the primary independent variable concerning reproductive behaviour, whereas several studies have examined ethnic differentials. Several studies have thus assessed ethnic differentials between Kazakhs and Russians in fertility intentions and preferences as well as parity progressions (Agadjanian 1999;Agadjanian, Dommaraju, and Glick 2008;Agadjanian, Dommaraju, and Nedoluzhko 2013;Spoorenberg 2013Spoorenberg , 2015Kan 2023). Kan (2023) finds a sustained fertility increase across all birth orders during the 2000s that is shared across both main ethnicities in the country.…”

“…Several studies have thus assessed ethnic differentials between Kazakhs and Russians in fertility intentions and preferences as well as parity progressions (Agadjanian 1999;Agadjanian, Dommaraju, and Glick 2008;Agadjanian, Dommaraju, and Nedoluzhko 2013;Spoorenberg 2013Spoorenberg , 2015Kan 2023). Kan (2023) finds a sustained fertility increase across all birth orders during the 2000s that is shared across both main ethnicities in the country. Some indication of fertility postponement is observed among ethnic Russian women in the early 21st century.…”

“…By selecting the post-Soviet nation of Kazakhstan as a case study, this paper aims to assess diverse explanations of religious disparities in contraceptive use and to scrutinize the mechanisms through which specific religious affiliation impacts contraceptive practices. Kazakhstan presents an intriguing context for investigating religious disparities in contraceptive use and the potential underlying factors due to its major dual ethnic and religious groups, ethnic Kazakhs (Muslims) and ethnic Russians (Christians), which find themselves at different stages of the demographic transition (Kan 2023). Thus, it becomes possible to probe whether disparities in contraceptive use predominantly stem from variations in fertility intentions between distinct ethnicreligious groups.…”