Swiss Climate Change and Nuclear Policy: A Comparative Analysis Using an Energy System Approach and a Sectoral Electricity Model

Abstract

Summary Decisions on climate change and nuclear policies are likely to have major influences on the future evolution of the Swiss energy system. To understand the implications of selected future policy decisions, we analyse the development of the Swiss energy system with a bottom-up technology-rich least-cost optimisation modelling framework. We use the Swiss MARKAL energy system model and analyse a stringent climate change mitigation policy with two policy variants on the availability of nuclear energy, i.e. with and without nuclear new builds. The energy system modelling approach provides insights into system-wide energy pathways, technology choice and cross-sectoral trade-offs like resource competition, electrification, and CO2 mitigation options across supply and demand sectors. To complement the full system approach, we apply an experimental TIMES model — a successor to MARKAL — of the Swiss electricity sector with a detailed representation of the electricity load curve accounting for diurnal and seasonal variations in demand and resource supply. The analytical results from both modelling approaches are presented and the electricity sector results compared to illustrate the complementary policy insights. The implications for realising an ambitious climate target with and without investment in new nuclear plants are discussed, and a number of areas for possible policy support identified.

Assessing the Future of Renewable and Smart Grid Technologies in Regional Energy Systems

“…For electricity we distinguish two price levels, a high one during day time-slices (from 50 MCHF/PJ in 2010 to 95 MCHF/PJ in 2045) and a lower one during night time-slices (from 26 MCHF/PJ in 2010 to 52 MCHF/PJ in 2045). These price schedules include taxes and are consistent with those proposed in the companion paper (Weidmann, Kannan, and Turton, 2012, which analyses the electricity sector in Switzerland.…”

A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework

“…A range of Swiss electricity policy scenario analyses have been undertaken with STEM-E [33,56]. For this paper, however, the objective is to illustrate the differences between the solutions of the two models, rather than Swiss policy implication or potential uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions.…”

“…While large-scale flexible Availability factor of solar PV in hourly (H) and aggregated (A) models 6 For instance, in May 2011, the Swiss Federal council decided to completely restrict investment in new nuclear power plants. The Base scenario does not include this restriction, which has been analysed in our other publications [33,56]. Thus, we re-emphasise that the Base scenario is adopted as an illustrative case.…”

“…Are there any computational limitations and complexities? An important caveat in this analysis is that the scenarios presented are examples intended for illustrating and explaining methodological difference between the two modelling approaches, rather than representing specific Swiss electricity polices which are extensively analysed in STEM-E and presented in our other publications [33,56]. The paper is organised as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of the development, features and key input assumptions of STEM-E; Section 3 describes the aggregation of the hourly timeslices in STEM-E into two diurnal timeslices to create a 'standard' TIMES model for comparison; Section 4 describes the scenario analysis and results; Section 5 compares and discusses the findings in the context of the questions outlined above and suggests an outlook for future analyses; while Section 6 draws key conclusions.…”

Welfare effects of technology-based climate policies in liberalized electricity markets: seeing beyond total system cost

“…This paper is not the first to examine the consequences of the Swiss nuclear phase-out. Some studies used bottom-up models (Prognos, 2012;Weidmann, Kannan, & Turton, 2012), which are, by construction, very detailed technically but model only partial equilibrium. They report variations on total system cost (only direct costs).…”