Synchronicity of historical dry spells in the Southern Hemisphere

Verdon‐Kidd, Danielle C.; Kiem, Anthony S.

doi:10.5194/hess-18-2257-2014

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Other important spatial aspects of drought are synchronicity, clustering and breaking up of drought clusters. Most studies focused on spatial aspects of meteorological drought e.g., Refs 146,147; there has been relatively limited research on the spatial aspects of hydrological drought. One of the first clustering methods suitable for hydrological drought is the algorithm developed by Andreadis et al 148 for droughts in soil moisture and runoff in the USA.…”

Section: Hydrological Drought Scales and Spatial Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological drought explained

2015

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Drought is a complex natural hazard that impacts ecosystems and society in many ways. Many of these impacts are associated with hydrological drought (drought in rivers, lakes, and groundwater). It is, therefore, crucial to understand the development and recovery of hydrological drought. In this review an overview is given of the current state of scientific knowledge of definitions, processes, and quantification of hydrological drought. Special attention is given to the influence of climate and terrestrial properties (geology, land use) on hydrological drought characteristics and the role of storage. Furthermore, the current debate about the use and usefulness of different drought indicators is highlighted and recent advances in drought monitoring and prediction are mentioned. Research on projections of hydrological drought for the future is summarized. This review also briefly touches upon the link of hydrological drought characteristics with impacts and the issues related to drought management. How to cite this article:WIREs Water 2015, 2:359-392. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1085 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN CONTEXTH ydrological drought refers to a lack of water in the hydrological system, manifesting itself in abnormally low streamflow in rivers and abnormally low levels in lakes, reservoirs, and groundwater. 1 It is part of the bigger drought phenomenon that denotes a recurrent natural hazard. 2 Societies around the world are exposed to a multitude of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, storms, tornadoes, floods, and droughts. 3,4 Hydrological extremes (floods and hydrological droughts) are natural hazards that are not confined to specific regions, but occur worldwide and, therefore, impact a very large number of people. 5 Flooding events receive most attention, both in the news and in scientific literature, due to their fast, clearly visible, and dramatic consequences. * Correspondence to: a.f.vanloon@bham.ac.uk School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK Drought events, also called 'the creeping disaster ', 6,7 develop slower and often unnoticed and have diverse and indirect consequences. Hydrological droughts can, however, cover extensive areas and can last for months to years, with devastating impacts on the ecological system and many economic sectors 1,8 (Table 1). Examples of affected sectors are drinking water supply, crop production (irrigation), waterborne transportation, electricity production (hydropower or cooling water), and recreation (water quality) e.g., Refs 1, 6, 8-13. The ecosystem impacts of drought differ between terrestrial ecosystems, in which droughts influence tree mortality due to wild fires, 14,15 and aquatic ecosystems, where they affect e.g., species composition, population density, 16 and food web structure. 17 Examples of drought events in the recent and distant past and their impacts are provided in Box 1.Currently, there is increasing awareness of drought and related hazards (heat waves and wi...

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Section: Hydrological Drought Scales and Spatial Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological drought explained

2015

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“…Numerous studies have demonstrated that the four most influential climate modes on SEA's climate are -El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Chiew et al, 1998;Kiem and Franks, 2001;Verdon et al, 2004) -ENSO is represented by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). The ONI is a 3-month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, centred on 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.…”

Section: Role Of Large-scale Climate Phenomena In Driving Enhanced Autumn and Winter Rainfall During The Mid-1980s To The Early 1990s In mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…-Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO; Power et al, 1999;Kiem et al, 2003;Verdon et al, 2004;Power and Colman, 2006) -Both the raw and the smoothed time series of Power et al (1999) are used in this study in order to identify epochs of positive and negative IPO.…”

Section: Role Of Large-scale Climate Phenomena In Driving Enhanced Autumn and Winter Rainfall During The Mid-1980s To The Early 1990s In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Links between the Big Dry in Australia and hemispheric multi-decadal climate variability – implications for water resource management

Verdon‐Kidd¹,

Kiem²,

Moran³

2013

Preprint

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Abstract. Southeast Australia (SEA) experienced a protracted drought during the mid-1990s until early 2010 (known as the Big Dry or Millennium Drought) that resulted in serious environmental, social and economic effects. This paper analyses a range of historical climate data sets to place the recent drought into context in terms of Southern Hemisphere inter-annual to multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability. The findings indicate that the recent Big Dry in SEA is in fact linked to the widespread Southern Hemisphere climate shift towards drier conditions that began in the mid-1970s. However, it is shown that this link is masked because the large-scale climate drivers responsible for drying in other regions of the mid-latitudes since the mid-1970s, did not have the same effect on SEA during the mid to late-1980s and early-1990s. More specifically, smaller-scale synoptic processes resulted in elevated autumn and winter rainfall (a crucial period for SEA hydrology) during the mid to late-1980s and early-1990s, which punctuated the longer term drying. From the mid-1990s to 2010 the frequency of the synoptic processes associated with elevated autumn/winter rainfall decreased, resulting in a return to drier than average conditions and the onset of the Big Dry. The findings presented in this paper have marked implications for water management and climate attribution studies in SEA, in particular for understanding and dealing with "baseline" (i.e. current) hydroclimatic risks.

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“…Indeed, because the mismatch between modeled and observed per-capita consumption was highest at 5−11 year cycles (e.g., between 0.09 and 0.2 cpy, Figure S6), the following climate modes warrant further evaluation: the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 3−7 year return period) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD; 6−17 year return period). 77 Interactions among climate modes (e.g., ENSO, IOD, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode) should also be evaluated, as the relationship among modes shifted mid1970s, changing drought dynamics 78 (and potentially, urban water consumption) in the Southern Hemisphere.…”

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confidence: 99%

Deconstructing Demand: The Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Urban Water Consumption

Hemati¹,

Rippy²,

Grant³

et al. 2016

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Cities in drought prone regions of the world such as South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and security challenges. Here we use 72 years of urban water consumption data from Melbourne, Australia, a city that recently overcame a 12 year "Millennium Drought", to evaluate (1) the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of urban water demand (using wavelet-based approaches) and (2) the relative contribution of various water saving strategies to demand reduction during the Millennium Drought. Our analysis points to conservation as a dominant driver of urban water savings (69%), followed by nonrevenue water reduction (e.g., reduced meter error and leaks in the potable distribution system; 29%), and potable substitution with alternative sources like rain or recycled water (3%). Per-capita consumption exhibited both climatic and anthropogenic signatures, with rainfall and temperature explaining approximately 55% of the variance. Anthropogenic controls were also strong (up to 45% variance explained). These controls were nonstationary and frequency-specific, with conservation measures like outdoor water restrictions impacting seasonal water use and technological innovation/changing social norms impacting lower frequency (baseline) use. The above-noted nonstationarity implies that wavelets, which do not assume stationarity, show promise for use in future predictive models of demand.

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Synchronicity of historical dry spells in the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract: Abstract.A shift in climate occurred during the mid-1970s

Cited by 14 publications

References 27 publications

Hydrological drought explained

Hydrological drought explained

Links between the Big Dry in Australia and hemispheric multi-decadal climate variability – implications for water resource management

Deconstructing Demand: The Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Urban Water Consumption

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