Synchronized Incidental Affect Changes Ambiguity Preferences

Abstract

Decisions under uncertainty are prevalent, but come under two distinct types. Risk, which has unknown outcomes but known probabilities for those outcomes and ambiguity which contains both unknown outcomes and unknown probabilities. Although there have been several studies linking affect and aversion to ambiguity, there have been no studies that have to identify how changing one’s affective response can change their choices. A total of 166 adults (M = 36.54, SD = 11.80) participated in an online study through Prolific. Participants were presented with a lottery on each trial which varied on its uncertainty type (risky vs ambiguous) and winning characteristics (winning probability and amount). Half of the ambiguous lotteries were paired with an neutral image (e.g., office supplies), while the other half was paired with an emotionally evocative image (e.g., burning house) that was hypothesized to incidentally influence their decisions. As measured by both raw choice data as well as through a computational model, participants were more averse to ambiguity when the lottery was paired with an emotionally evocative image. Follow-up analyses revealed that only lotteries in which the computational model predicted the participant would choose the lottery were affected by the images. This study highlights the phenomenon in which one’s awareness of an affective stimulus can alter its impact on their decisions.