Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok

Quoc, Cuong Hoang; Salje, Henrik; Isabel, Rodriguez Barraquer; In-Kyu, Yoon; Châu, Nguyễn Văn Vĩnh; Hưng, Nguyễn Thành; Tuan, Ha Manh; Lan, Phan Trong; Willis, Bridget; Nisalak, Ananda; Kalayanarooj, Siripen; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Simmons, Cameron P.

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005188

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…The median age of notified dengue cases in Nha Trang was 11–20 years over the study period, which is younger than previously reported in northern Vietnam 7 and similar to estimates from hospitalized cases in southern Vietnam. 10 , 33 Together, these data are consistent with an overall increase in intensity of DENV transmission from the north of the country to the south.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Epidemiological, Serological, and Virological Features of Dengue in Nha Trang City, Vietnam

Quyen

Lê

Anh

et al. 2018

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract.Vietnam is endemic for dengue. We conducted a series of retrospective and prospective studies to characterize the epidemiology of dengue and population mobility patterns in Nha Trang city, Vietnam, with a view to rational design of trials of community-level interventions. A 10-year time series of dengue case notifications showed pronounced interannual variability, as well as spatial heterogeneity in ward-level dengue incidence (median annual coefficient of variation k = 0.47). Of 451 children aged 1–10 years enrolled in a cross-sectional serosurvey, almost one-third had evidence of a past dengue virus (DENV) infection, with older children more likely to have a multitypic response indicative of past exposure to ≥ 1 serotype. All four DENV serotypes were detected in hospitalized patients during 8 months of sampling in 2015. Mobility data collected from 1,000 children and young adults via prospective travel diaries showed that, although all ages spent approximately half of their daytime hours (5:00 am–9:00 pm) at home, younger age groups (≤ 14 years) spent a significantly greater proportion of their time within 500 m of home than older respondents. Together these findings inform the rational design of future trials of dengue preventive interventions in this setting by identifying 1) children < 7 years as an optimal target group for a flavivirus-naive serological cohort, 2) children and young adults as the predominant patient population for a study with a clinical end point of symptomatic dengue, and 3) substantial spatial and temporal variations in DENV transmission, with a consequent requirement for a trial to be large enough and of long enough duration to overcome this heterogeneity.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Epidemiological, Serological, and Virological Features of Dengue in Nha Trang City, Vietnam

Quyen

Lê

Anh

et al. 2018

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…As dengue outbreaks within a region can be synchronous, driven in part by large climatic shifts (e.g. El Niño) [33][34][35][36] , we sought to determine if recent ecological changes could have altered virus transmission potential by Ae. aegypti mosquitoes.…”

Section: Mosquito-borne Virus Surveillance and Transmission Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

Machado

Siconelli

Oidtman

et al. 2020

Preprint

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After Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged and caused an epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined in the following years (2017-2018) to a record low in many countries. Following this period of low incidence, dengue resurged in 2019 in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. The reasons for the recent fluctuations in dengue incidence and the maintenance of dengue virus (DENV) through periods of low transmission are unknown. To investigate this, we used a combination of epidemiological and climatological data to estimate dengue force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s in Brazil. Our estimates of FOI revealed that the rate of DENV transmission in 2018-2019 was exceptionally low, due to a low proportion of susceptible population rather than changes to ecological conditions. This supports the hypothesis that the synchronous decline of dengue in Brazil may be explained by protective immunity from pre-exposure to ZIKV and/or DENV in prior years. Furthermore, we sequenced 69 genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 circulating in Northeast and Southeast Brazil, and performed phylogeographic analyses to uncover patterns of viral spread. We found that the outbreaks in Brazil in 2019 were caused by DENV lineages that were circulating locally prior to the Zika epidemic and spread cryptically during the period of low transmission. Despite the period of low transmission, endemic DENV lineages persisted for 5-10 years in Brazil before causing major outbreaks. Our study challenges the paradigm that dengue outbreaks are caused by recently introduced new lineages, but rather they may be driven by established lineages circulating at low levels until the conditions are conducive for outbreaks.

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“…Modeling work by Lourenco and Recker has recapitulated this concept, with evidence that the population dengue prevalence and stochastic events play strong roles in shaping DENV epidemics and that DENV epidemics could not be simplistically explained by DENV strain fitness alone [109,140]. Another study also found that many of the dynamics of DENV epidemics in a single dengue season in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok were synchronous, despite there being a distinctly different admixture of DENV serotypes in each city [141]. In sum, it is important to consider how a potential interaction between ecology, virology and population level immunity may shape certain DENV epidemics.…”

Section: What Are the Drivers Of Denv Evolution And Diversity?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding dengue virus evolution to support epidemic surveillance and counter-measure development

Pollett

Melendrez

Berry

et al. 2018

Infection, Genetics and Evolution

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Dengue virus (DENV) causes a profound burden of morbidity and mortality, and its global burden is rising due to the co-circulation of four divergent DENV serotypes in the ecological context of globalization, travel, climate change, urbanization, and expansion of the geographic range of the Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus vectors. Understanding DENV evolution offers valuable opportunities to enhance surveillance and response to DENV epidemics via advances in RNA virus sequencing, bioinformatics, phylogenetic and other computational biology methods. Here we provide a scoping overview of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of DENV and the range of ways that evolutionary analyses can be applied as a public health tool against this arboviral pathogen.

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Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok

Cited by 21 publications

References 32 publications

Epidemiological, Serological, and Virological Features of Dengue in Nha Trang City, Vietnam

Epidemiological, Serological, and Virological Features of Dengue in Nha Trang City, Vietnam

Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

Understanding dengue virus evolution to support epidemic surveillance and counter-measure development

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