Synergistic Effects of Urban Mitigation and Adaptation Pilot Policies in China: An Analysis Based on Low-Carbon Resilience

Abstract

Low-carbon cities and climate resilient cities represent urban development models in China aimed at achieving urban mitigation and adaptation objectives. This study focuses on the dual pilot policy of low-carbon cities and climate resilient cities, establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban low-carbon resilience that encompasses ecological, economic, social, and institutional dimensions. Utilizing panel data from 286 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2005 to 2021, this study employs Difference-in-Differences, K-means clustering, Double Machine Learning, and a tri-dimensional policy analysis framework of "policy instruments—policy pathways—policy objectives." It provides an in-depth assessment of the dual pilot policy's impact through policy synergy effects, policy tool analysis, and key case studies, supplemented by heterogeneity analysis, mechanism analysis, and cluster analysis. Results indicate that the dual pilot policy significantly enhances the low-carbon resilience of pilot cities, outperforming the effects seen in cities with a singular pilot policy. The policy effects vary among different types of pilot cities, with notably significant impacts in cities facing high temperatures, low temperatures, heavy rainfall, and high disaster risks. Cities characterized by higher levels of low-carbon resilience (categorized as MMHM) manifest more consistent policy synergy effects, whereas cities with lower levels of resilience (classified as LLLL) exhibit some disparities. The study also identifies the strengthening of green technology innovation, human capital development, and communication infrastructure construction as key factors enhancing policy effectiveness. Ultimately, this research underscores the importance of the diversity and combination of policy tools, as well as the multidimensionality and synergy of policy objectives, for effective climate action. It recommends that urban managers consider the synergistic effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures when formulating climate policies.