Synoptic detection of the short-term atmospheric precursors prior to a major earthquake in the Middle East, North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake, SE Iran

Daneshvar, Mohammad Reza Mansouri; Tavousi, Taghi; Khosravi, Mahmood

doi:10.1007/s11869-013-0214-y

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…The choice of µ + 2σ threshold is in accordance with previous research on detection of earthquake-related anomalies [3,[44][45][46]. The threshold is determined by each pixel's series separately, and is thus dynamically adjusted to local environmental conditions.…”

Section: Anomaly Detectionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Time Series Analysis of Land Surface Temperatures in 20 Earthquake Cases Worldwide

et al. 2018

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Earthquakes are reported to be preceded by anomalous increases in satellite-recorded thermal emissions, but published results are often contradicting and/or limited to short periods and areas around the earthquake. We apply a methodology that allows to detect subtle, localized spatio-temporal fluctuations in hyper-temporal, geostationary-based land surface temperature (LST) data. We study 10 areas worldwide, covering 20 large (Mw > 5.5) and shallow (<35 km) land-based earthquakes. We compare years and locations with and without earthquake, and we statistically evaluate our findings with respect to distance from epicentra and temporal coincidence with earthquakes. We detect anomalies throughout the duration of all datasets, at various distances from the earthquake, and in years with and without earthquake alike. We find no distinct repeated patterns in the case of earthquakes that happen in the same region in different years. We conclude that earthquakes do not have a significant effect on detected LST anomalies.Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 61 2 of 25 in [25]). Furthermore, anomalies are often found to relate to atmospheric influences and artefacts due to data processing [26].The objective of this study is to make use of the advantages provided by geostationary-based LST data and of a recently published methodological approach, in order to examine the presence of thermal anomalies shortly before large, shallow, land-based earthquakes. We consider that an earthquake is large when it has magnitude larger than Mw 5.5 and that an earthquake is shallow when it has focal depth <35 km. We study 20 earthquake cases in 10 study areas around the world, with different local environmental and climatic conditions. We apply a methodology which suppresses large-scale patterns in the satellite signal time series and isolates only spatially localized fluctuations [27]. This methodology allows to constrain the spatial extent of detected anomalies and the time of their occurrence. Thermal anomalies may appear for a variety of reasons other than earthquakes, including spatiotemporal variations of surface spectral emissivity [28] and local atmospheric conditions, like atmospheric inversions [29]. We therefore test the hypothesis that more anomalies would be detected at closer distances to the earthquake, shortly prior or during the earthquake, and only in years with earthquake occurrence. This hypothesis is supported by published research [30], concluding that anomalies increase with increasing earthquake magnitude; anomalies are found predominantly near the epicenter, one day before and on the day of the earthquake; and anomalies are more easily observed during shallow earthquakes than the deep ones. We statistically evaluate our findings, taking into account the spatial and temporal occurrence of detected anomalies and earthquakes. Materials and Methods Input DataResearch suggests that the use of satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) data can provide significant advantages in this field of study [6,31,32]. LST products are esti...

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Section: Anomaly Detectionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Time Series Analysis of Land Surface Temperatures in 20 Earthquake Cases Worldwide

et al. 2018

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“…Possible effects of radon and aerosol injection in the atmosphere prior to earthquakes have been mentioned by [24]. Anomalous cloud formation one week before a M7.8 earthquake in Iran has been reported in [25]. Thermal atmospheric irregularities have been observed in [26] prior to a M7.8 earthquake in Mexico.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is There an Earthquake Weather?

Parrot¹,

Pinçon²

2020

OJER

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The aim of this study is to check if there is a relationship between the seismic activity and the whistlers observed by the micro-satellite DEMETER. Whistlers are the waves emitted by lightning strokes during thunderstorm activity. They use to propagate in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide but also in the ionosphere and the magnetosphere mainly along the magnetic field lines. Due to this reason we have checked the whistler occurrence not close to earthquake epicenters but close to the magnetically conjugate point of these epicenters at the satellite altitude. The number of whistlers is given by a neural network in operation onboard the satellite. It appears that the whistler amplitude is attenuated at the satellite altitude around the magnetic equator. It is why we have removed the earthquakes occurring at low geomagnetic latitudes in the statistic. The whistler rate is normalized with a background value to take into account the seasons and the epicenter locations. A superposed epoch method is used to display the results between −15 and +5 days around the earthquake day and up to 1000 km from the conjugate point of the epicenters. It is shown that the whistler rate is higher the day before the earthquake at a distance less than 200 km. It would be unrealistic to believe in the possibility to use this study for earthquake prediction because everyday thunderstorm activity reliably masks seismic effects. But it is further evidence that there is a lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling at the time of the seismic activity.

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“…His prophecy is confirmed by the recent advances in satellite-based observations that have provided extensive evidence in momentary anomalies proceeding EQs (Adil et al, 2021a(Adil et al, , 2021bDe Santis et al, 2019;Hsiao et al, 2009;Oyama et al, 2011;S ¸entu ¨rk et al, 2019). The existence of pre-EQ seismically induced atmospheric precursors can be found in various studies (Blackett et al, 2011;Cervone et al, 2006;Mansouri Daneshvar et al, 2014;Ouzounov et al, 2007;Xiong et al, 2010). Similarly, many studies have widely reported the seismo-ionosphere anomalies (SIAs) as potential precursors to the EQs (Kamogawa, 2006;Liu et al, 2010;Su et al, 2013;Yan et al, 2018;Zhou et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

A Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Phenomenon Observed Before M 7.7 Jamaica Earthquake

Adil

Şentürk

Пулинец

et al. 2021

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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The satellite-based earth observations have become an appropriate instrumental approach in monitoring the natural hazards among modern-day researchers. This study presents a multi-parameter approach using precursors of different physical nature defining the states of atmosphere and the ionosphere in terms of temporal and spatial variations about 5 days before the impending M 7.7 Jamaican earthquake (EQ). We performed a comprehensive analysis from the surface to the ionosphere at different altitude levels by analyzing the different datasets comprising, surface air temperature, relative humidity, total column water vapor, air pressure, Outgoing Longwave Radiations (OLR), and the total electron content of the global ionosphere maps (GIM-TEC). We observed a sharp increment in the atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) due to the increased radon activity that led to an abrupt decrement in the atmospheric relative humidity and, consequently, increased OLR that provides strong evidence of the air ionization production around the epicenter of M 7.7 EQ. Moreover, to check the periodicity of these atmospheric parameters, we performed a confutation analysis by meticulously analyzing these parameters in the same month and region for the previous 5 years during the non-existence of any major seismicity. This technique confirmed that the simultaneous atmospheric variations observed before the Jamaica EQ are not cyclic in the absence of significant seismic activities. The ionospheric conditions have also shown consistency with atmospheric disturbances, as depletions in GIM-TECs, having an amplitude of 4 TECU, are observed over the epicenter for 6 h (LT = 13-19 (--UT)) on January 23, 2020. Additionally, the vertical ionospheric and atmospheric profiles from FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (F7/C2), at different altitudes (75-225 km) over the EQ epicenter, showed significant depletions on January 23, 2020. These TEC variations are observed to be an effect of the vertical seismogenic electric field due to the production of the air ionization at the atmospheric boundary layer by increased radon activity around the seismic preparation zone. The existence of these co-located synchronized atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies is explicitly and persistently local over a small region of the epicenter of Jamaican EQ that could be considered as potential short-term precursors. Also, these multiobserved anomalies will contribute to the physical explanation of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model.

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Synoptic detection of the short-term atmospheric precursors prior to a major earthquake in the Middle East, North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake, SE Iran

Cited by 16 publications

References 50 publications

Time Series Analysis of Land Surface Temperatures in 20 Earthquake Cases Worldwide

Time Series Analysis of Land Surface Temperatures in 20 Earthquake Cases Worldwide

Is There an Earthquake Weather?

A Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Phenomenon Observed Before M 7.7 Jamaica Earthquake

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