Synthesis and Perspectives on Disturbance Interactions, and Forest Fire Risk and Fire Severity in Central Europe

Abstract

Wildfire risk increases following non-fire disturbance events, but this relationship is not always linear or cumulative, and previous studies are not consistent in differentiating between disturbance loops versus cascades. Previous research on disturbance interactions and their influence on forest fires has primarily focused on fire-prone regions, such as North America, Australia, and Southern Europe. In contrast, less is known about these dynamics in Central Europe, where wildfire risk and hazard are increasing. In recent years, forest disturbances, particularly windthrow, insect outbreaks, and drought, have become more frequent in Central Europe. At the same time, climate change is influencing fire weather conditions that further intensify forest fire dynamics. Here, we synthesize findings from the recent literature on disturbance interactions in Central Europe with the aim to identify disturbance-driven processes that influence the regional fire regime. We propose a conceptual framework of interacting disturbances that can be used in wildfire risk assessments and beyond. In addition, we identify knowledge gaps and make suggestions for future research regarding disturbance interactions and their implications for wildfire activity. Our findings indicate that fire risk in the temperate forests of Central Europe is increasing and that non-fire disturbances and their interactions modify fuel properties that subsequently influence wildfire dynamics in multiple ways.