Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Database

James, M. K.; Mason, Luciano B.

doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-950x(2005)131:4(181)

Cited by 122 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Such an approach has been adopted 80 widely for tropical cyclones, for both commercial and academic applications (e.g., 81 Vickery et al, 2000;James and Mason, 2005; Emanuel et al, 2006; Rumpf, et al, 82 2007; Hall and Jewson, 2007;Hall and Yonekura, 2013; Yonekura and Hall, 2014; 83 Bonazzi et al, 2014). Additionally, a statistical downscaling approach has been 84 utilized substantially in Europe for windstorms (Klawaand Ulbrich, 2003; Haas and 85 Pinto 2012; Born et al, 2012;Seregina et al, 2014), and to a lesser extent in North 86…”

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confidence: 99%

SynthETC: A Statistical Model for Severe Winter Storm Hazard on Eastern North America

Hall

Booth

2017

J. Climate

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13We develop, evaluate, and apply "SynthETC," a statistical-stochastic model of winter 14 extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) over eastern North America. SynthETC simulates the 15 life cycle of ETCs from formation to termination, and it can be used to estimate the 16 probability of extreme ETC events beyond the historical record. Two modes of 17 climate variability are used as independent covariates: El Niño/Southern Oscillation 18 (ENSO) Niño3.4 and the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We use SynthETC 19 to estimate the annual occurrence rate over sites in eastern North America of 20 intense ETC passage in different ENSO and NAO states. Positive NAO is associated 21 with increased rates over the North Atlantic, while negative NAO is associated with 22 decreased rates over the North Atlantic and increased rates over northern Quebec. 23 Positive ENSO is associated with decreased rates over the North Atlantic, Ontario, 24 and the Canadian Maritime, while negative ENSO is associated with increased rates 25 over those regions, as well as the Great Lakes region. 26 27 28 3 Introduction 29 30Winter extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) pose a major hazard to eastern North 31 America. These storms can cause damage through their precipitation, e.g., blizzards 32 and floods, and through their winds, e.g., extreme surface winds and storm surge. 33Heavy snowfall causes power outages, collapse of structures, and suspension of 34 travel and commerce. ETC winds sometimes reach hurricane force and drive 35 damaging coastal storm surge. Orton et al. (2016) found that in the New York City 36 area, ETCs are the dominant cause of surge events that have annual probability 37 greater than 1%. NOAA's NCDC estimated $40.9 billion in insured and uninsured 38 losses due to ETC events from 1980 to 2016 that caused more than one billion 39 dollars in damage each (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats; see also Smith 40 and Katz, 2013). 41 42ETCs are a dominant source of mid-latitude weather, and their varied formation and 43 evolution mechanisms have been studied using a wide range of observational, 44 theoretical, and modeling approaches (reviewed in Catto, 2016). The 45 characterization of ETC variability in the Northeast US has been documented for 46 some time (e.g. Miller 1946), and a climatology of northeast ETC tracks exists 47 (Hirsch et al. 2001). However, our understanding of the link between the storms' 48 variability, hazardous extreme events, and large-scale climate variability remains 49 incomplete (Colle et al. 2015). An examination of ETC tracks on seasonal timescales 50 suggests that there are a large set of forcing parameters, however the variance 51 4 explained by multiple predictors is less than 50% (DeGaetano 2008). 52Climatologically, ETC tracks have been used to identify a preferred track path for 53 storms that create wind hazards in the northeast (Booth et al. 2015). However, the 54 probabilistic analysis in that work is limited by the short time span of the reanalysis 55 utilized. A large body of w...

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confidence: 99%

SynthETC: A Statistical Model for Severe Winter Storm Hazard on Eastern North America

Hall

Booth

2017

J. Climate

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“…Subsequent studies conducted principally by JCU-MMU provided updated TC-induced surge plus tide updates for selected east coast sites (Hardy et al 2004a, b) all with and without allowance for predicted enhanced-greenhouse effects by 2050. This work was done using the JCU-MMU storm surge, wave and TC wind field models that had been extensively calibrated over many years (Bode and Mason 1994;Hardy et al 2001;James and Mason 2005). A series of demonstration hindcasts of significant historical storms indicated that peak surge levels were likely reproducible within 5% of measured values provided that adequate meteorological and bathymetric data was available.…”

Section: Queensland Climate Change Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Developments in storm tide modelling and risk assessment in the Australian region

et al. 2009

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An overview is provided of some of the significant storm tide modelling and risk assessment studies undertaken over the past few years within Australia and the nearby oceanic regions for government and industry. Emphasis is placed on the need for integrated planning and forecasting approaches for storm tide risk assessment. The importance of the meteorological forcing and the appropriate modelling of each of the storm tide components, namely, astronomical tide, storm surge, breaking wave setup and coastal inundation is discussed. The critical role of tropical cyclone ''best track'' datasets for risk assessment studies and the potential impacts on design criteria and risk assessment studies is highlighted, together with the challenge of developing credible enhanced-greenhouse climate change scenarios. It is concluded that storm tide modelling needs to be undertaken in a holistic framework that considers the relative uncertainties in each of the various elements-atmospheric, hydrodynamic and data, as well as addressing operational forecasting, design and planning needs.

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“…Hall and Jewson (2007) explored quantitatively for a North Atlantic track model the trade-offs between increased precision (use of more data) and the potential loss of accuracy (increased chances for bias) relative to a model that uses solely landfall data. Previous statistical track models include Drayton (2000) from the private sector and Darling (1991), Chu and Wang (1998), Vickery et al (2000), Emanuel et al (2006), James and Mason (2005), Rumpf et al (2007), and Hall and Jewson (2007) from academic research. Not all employ a full statistical track model, and most focus on hurricanes in the North Atlantic.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

Yonekura¹,

Hall²

2011

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model's genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Niñ a).

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Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Database

Cited by 122 publications

References 23 publications

SynthETC: A Statistical Model for Severe Winter Storm Hazard on Eastern North America

SynthETC: A Statistical Model for Severe Winter Storm Hazard on Eastern North America

Developments in storm tide modelling and risk assessment in the Australian region

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

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