Syphilis and Hiv Coinfection and Previous History of Signs and Syntoms of Sti Among Conscripts in Brazil, 2016

Abstract

AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhea are prevalent STDs in China listed as category B notifiable infectious diseases in the law.•Category B notifiable infectious diseases are required to be reported within 24 hours in the national surveillance system, however there is a 1-2 week delay of publication of official statistics. Using search data to predict can potentially overcome publication delay and help health authorities to make preemptive preventative and treatment plans.•In China there has been no research evaluating the use of search engine data in predicting AIDS and other STDs. Baidu holds the highest search engine market penetration rate in China (93.1% in December, 2015). It is currently the most representative tool to measure search engine users' behaviors in the country.We aimed to use Baidu search data in the autoregressive model combined with past notified incidence case counts to monitor and predict AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhea in China. Data SourcesThe search volume data of keywords: http://index.baidu.com/The original keywords set: http://tool.chinaz.com/ Keywords Selection and FilteringExclusion Criteria:1.Words irrelevant to the incidence of AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhea, such as 'The World AIDS Day' etc. 2. Words with an interrupted time series representing Baidu search index, i.e. anecdotes about celebrities or media hype.3. Words that few people use in real life search whose Baidu search index was always zero in a long period of time (6 months or longer). 4. Words whose Baidu search index's Spearman's rank correlation coefficients with the monthly reported incidence case counts was less than 0.4.