System analysis of the bio‐based economy in Colombia: A bottom‐up energy system model and scenario analysis

Abstract

The transition to a sustainable bio‐based economy is perceived as a valid path towards low‐carbon development for emerging economies that have rich biomass resources. In the case of Colombia, the role of biomass has been tackled through qualitative roadmaps and regional climate policy assessments. However, neither of these approaches has addressed the complexity of the bio‐based economy systematically in the wider context of emission mitigation and energy and chemicals supply. In response to this limitation, we extended a bottom‐up energy system optimization model by adding a comprehensive database of novel bio‐based value chains. We included advanced road and aviation biofuels, (bio)chemicals, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and integrated biorefinery configurations. A scenario analysis was conducted for the period 2015–2050, which reflected uncertainties in the capacity for technological learning, climate policy ambitions, and land availability for energy crops. Our results indicate that biomass can play an important, even if variable, role in supplying 315–760 PJ/y of modern bio‐based products. In pursuit of a deep decarbonization trajectory, the large‐scale mobilization of biomass resources can reduce the cost of the energy system by up to 11 billion $/year, the marginal abatement cost by 62%, and the potential reliance on imports of oil and chemicals in the future. The mitigation potential of BECCS can reach 24–29% of the cumulative avoided emissions between 2015 and 2050. The proposed system analysis framework can provide detailed quantitative information on the role of biomass in low carbon development of emerging economies. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Scrutinizing the Intermittency of Renewable Energy in a Long-Term Planning Model via Combining Direct Integration and Soft-Linking Methods for Colombia’s Power System

“…The second family comprises bottom up energy system optimization models (ESOMs). Younis et al [24] developed a detailed representation of biomass value chains for the Colombian energy system, including advanced biorefinery, bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and (bio)chemicals options. This framework is referred to as TIMES-CO-BBE (an offspring of MARKAL Colombia [25,26]).…”

“…Both models lack a detailed representation of load following constraints or cycling costs, which are often represented in high technical detail operational power system models (e.g., unit commitment models) [3]. h The main input parameters to TIMES-CO-BBE are based on Younis et al [24] (see the datasets in Supplementary S1 [34,35]). For consistency, the input data to both models are harmonized.…”

“…The stylized time slices have been adjusted to allow for comparison between alternative time slicing systems. Moreover, Younis et al [24] used exogenous grid penetration constraints for VRES based on power system studies in the literature [29,30]. These constraints are disregarded in this analysis because the system integration of VRES is explicitly addressed.…”

“…The demand is determined by exogenous socio-economic drivers of energy services, for example, lighting, cooking, heating/cooling, and machine drive in four main sectors, namely, commercial and others, industrial, residential, and transport and also the demand for base chemicals, edible sugars, and oils, which are relevant for the bioeconomy. The main constraints include techno-economic learning rates and operational limits of technologies, the availability and cost of resource extraction and/or trade, emission mitigation target, and the subsurface storage potential of carbon dioxide [24] (see Supplementary S1).…”

“…In this way, electricity could compete with other energy carriers, such as biomass, fossil fuels, and hydrogen. More details of the model are published elsewhere [24].…”