System behaviour in flood risk calculations

Courage, W.M.G.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Mierlo, Th. van; Schweckendieck, T.

doi:10.1080/17499518.2013.790732

Cited by 14 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Effective management of landslide risks requires the provision of breaching parameters such as breach size, peak outflow rate and breaching initiation time (e.g., Zhang, 2012b,c, 2013a,b;Zhang et al, 2013;Courage et al, 2013) and the evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures (e.g., Peng et al, 2014). Therefore, more quantitative studies are required to understand the mechanisms of cascading dam breaching, quantify the influences of geometric, hydraulic and geological factors on dam breaching parameters, and identify critical conditions of overlapping effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cascading breaching of the Tangjiashan landslide dam and two smaller downstream landslide dams

Shi

Guan

Peng

et al. 2015

Engineering Geology

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cascading breaching of the Tangjiashan landslide dam and two smaller downstream landslide dams

Shi

Guan

Peng

et al. 2015

Engineering Geology

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“…The subject of downstream flood risk reduction due to upstream breaching in the Netherlands was explored in a research project as described by Van Mierlo et al (2007) and Courage et al (2013). Courage et al (2013) successfully quantified the potential effects of dike breaches on downstream water levels and flood risks for a number of dike rings in the Rhine-Meuse delta. In their simulations, flood defences could breach due to the failure mechanisms 'piping' and 'erosion of the inner slope due to wave overtopping'.…”

Section: Existing Flood Risk Models In Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in the Rhine–Meuse delta

Diermanse

Bruijn

Beckers

et al. 2014

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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During flood events, breaching of flood defences along a river system can have a significant reducing effect on downstream water levels and flood risks. This paper presents a Monte Carlo based flood risk framework for policy decision making, which takes this retention effect into account. The framework is developed to estimate societal flood risk in terms of potential numbers of fatalities and associated probabilities. It is tested on the Rhine-Meuse delta system in the Netherlands, where floods can be caused by high flows in the Rhine and Meuse rivers and/or high sea water levels in the North Sea. Importance sampling is applied in the Monte Carlo procedure to increase computational efficiency of the flood risk computations. This paper focuses on the development and testing of efficient importance sampling strategies for the framework. The development of an efficient importance sampling strategy for river deltas is more challenging than for non-tidal rivers where only discharges are relevant, because the relative influence of river discharge and sea water level on flood levels differs from location to location. As a consequence, sampling methods that are efficient and accurate for one location may be inefficient for other locations or, worse, may introduce errors in computed design water levels. Nevertheless, in the case study described in this paper the required simulation time was reduced by a factor 100 after the introduction of an efficient importance sampling method in the Monte Carlo framework, while at the same time the accuracy of the Monte Carlo estimates were improved.

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“…For flood protection systems purely consisting of structural elements, several studies have used probabilistic risk analysis to elaborate on the interdependence—how one measure affects the performance of the other—between structures (Courage, Vrouwenvelder, van Mierlo, & Schweckendiek, ; De Bruijn, Diermanse, & Beckers, ; Tsimopoulou, ). These studies have shown that a flood risk reduction measure can strongly influence the effectiveness of other elements of the flood defence system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the optimisation of risk reduction provided by single structures has been investigated extensively in the past (Eijgenraam et al, ; Kind, ; Tung, ), only specific combinations of two interventions (levees, hard structures, natural foreshores) have been analysed by hand (Courage et al, ; Vuik, Jonkman, Borsje, & Suzuki, ). Common techniques for mathematical optimisation (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of flood risk reduction strategies through combinations of interventions

Berchum

Mobley

Jonkman

et al. 2018

J Flood Risk Management

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Large, complex coastal regions often require a combination of interventions to lower the risk of flooding to an acceptable level. In practice, a limited number of strategies are considered and interdependencies between interventions are often simplified. This paper presents the Multiple Lines of Defence Optimization System (MODOS)‐model. This quick, probabilistic model simulates and evaluates the impact of many flood risk reduction strategies while accounting for interdependencies amongst measures. The simulation includes hydraulic calculations, damage calculations, and the effects of measures for various return periods. The application and potential of this model is shown with a conceptual and simplified case study, based on the Houston‐Galveston Bay area. The analyses demonstrate how the MODOS‐model identifies trade‐offs within the system and shows how flood risk, cost, and impact respond to flood management decisions. This improved understanding of the impact of design and planning choices can benefit the discussions in finding the optimal flood risk reduction strategy for coastal regions.

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System behaviour in flood risk calculations

Cited by 14 publications

References 8 publications

Cascading breaching of the Tangjiashan landslide dam and two smaller downstream landslide dams

Cascading breaching of the Tangjiashan landslide dam and two smaller downstream landslide dams

Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in the Rhine–Meuse delta

Evaluation of flood risk reduction strategies through combinations of interventions

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