System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

Homer, Jack; Hirsch, Gary B.

doi:10.2105/ajph.2005.062059

Cited by 775 publications

(589 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Example applications include studies of social welfare (Zagonel, Rohrbaugh, Richardson, & Andersen, 2004), environment and energy (Sterman, 2014), education systems (Ghaffarzadegan et al, 2014), and healthcare systems (Fallah-Fini, Rahmandad, Huang, Bures, & Glass, 2014;Teytelman & Larson, 2013;Wittenborn, Rahmandad, Rick, & Hosseinichimeh, 2016). Specifically, in the domain of health care, growing attention has been paid to developing models that can capture population health and prevalence of chronic health conditions or infectious disease and be used as platforms to test policy alternatives (Finkelstein, Larson, Nigmatulina, & Teytelman, 2015;Homer & Hirsch, 2006;Milstein, Homer, Briss, Burton, & Pechacek, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

Ghaffarzadegan

Larson

Fingerhut

et al. 2017

Public Administration and Information Technology

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Abstract:A wide range of modeling methods have been used to inform health policies. In this chapter, we describe the use of three models for understanding the complexities of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a major mental disorder. The models are: 1) a qualitative model describing the social and psychological complexities of PTSD treatment; 2) a system dynamics model of a population of PTSD patients in the military and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA); and 3) a Monte Carlo simulation model of PTSD prevalence and clinical demand over time among the OEF/OIF population. These models have two characteristics in common. First, they take systems approaches. In all models, we set a large boundary and look at the whole system, incorporating both military personnel and veterans. Second, our models are informed by a wide range of qualitative and quantitative data. Model I is rooted in qualitative data, and models II and III are calibrated to several data sources. These models are used to analyze the effect of different policy alternatives, such as more screening, more resiliency, and better recruitment procedures, on PTSD prevalence. They also provide analysis of healthcare costs in the military and the VA for each policy. Overall, the developed models offer examples of modeling techniques that can utilize a wide range of data sources and inform policy makers in developing programs for mitigating PTSD.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

Ghaffarzadegan

Larson

Fingerhut

et al. 2017

Public Administration and Information Technology

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“…This macro modeling approach can help organizations develop strategic and operational decisions. It is also now being used in modeling aspects of the healthcare system (Hirsch and Homer 2004, Homer and Hirsch 2006, Brailsford 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Teaching the Use of Systems Dynamics for Strategic Decision Making in Healthcare

McLaughlin¹,

Olson

2017

INFORMS Transactions on Education

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Abstract. Having worked in the healthcare system and taught healthcare MBAs for over a decade, we have observed that healthcare systems and departments operate in independent silos. This paper shows how to use systems dynamics as a method to help students examine the big picture of how components fit together to form a system. We demonstrate the application of this approach and provide an example from one of our healthcare professional graduate student teams.

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“…Homer and Hirsch [9] for example, argue that systems dynamics facilitates the modelling of a range of risk management factors such as hospital resources, human behaviour and violations to patient safety. Much of this type of work has been carried out on public health issues (e.g., disease screening, workforce planning) and has primarily involved researchers with expertise in operational research (OR).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the potential to simulate hospital-based infection outbreaks using the stamp architecture

Waterson

Chung

2010

5th IET International Conference on System Safety 2010

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Additional Information:• This is a conference paper. AbstractIn this paper we describe our use of the STAMP architecture to analyse the C. difficile infection outbreaks which occurred at the Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS trust. Background data from other outbreaks in the UK (e.g., at Stoke Mandeville NHS trust) were also used to build STAMP models. The specification uses components of STAMP such as negative and positive feedback loops to represent the degree to which decisions taken at a higher level in the system (e.g., bed turnover targets) impacted upon system components at lower levels (e.g., the morale and attitude of staff at ward level). In addition, the specification includes elements which aim to model the degree to which organisational learning was inhibited or facilitated within the system (e.g., through the provision of balancing loopsKontogiannis, in press). Finally, we examine the role played by the different types of mental model held by the various human actors in the system and how these change over time/are impacted by external constraints.

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System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

Cited by 775 publications

References 36 publications

Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

Teaching the Use of Systems Dynamics for Strategic Decision Making in Healthcare

Investigating the potential to simulate hospital-based infection outbreaks using the stamp architecture

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