System Dynamics Modeling of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management

Ahmad, Sajjad; Simonović́, Slobodan P.

doi:10.1061/(asce)0887-3801(2000)14:3(190)

Cited by 233 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Additionally, operation rules of hydraulic structures need to be included, where appropriate, to represent the effect of their management strategies (e.g. Ahmad and Simonovic, 2000).…”

Section: (Iv) Behaviour Of Hydraulic Structuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Hall

Arheimer

Borga

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

497

335

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Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

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“…Additionally, operation rules of hydraulic structures need to be included, where appropriate, to represent the effect of their management strategies (e.g. Ahmad and Simonovic, 2000).…”

Section: (Iv) Behaviour Of Hydraulic Structuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Hall

Arheimer

Borga

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

497

335

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Similar to SD applications in water resource planning, water resource problem analyses (i.e., testing changing conditions or alternative policies) have had widespread application in the literature [55,[66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75] as well as in the System Dynamics Society [76][77][78][79][80][81] across a broad range of issues from energy production to agriculture to municipal water management. We highlight two cases, one dealing with sensitivity analyses of uncertain socioeconomic parameters in a traditional irrigation community in northern New Mexico, USA [75], and another on scenario analyses of alternative water transfer policies in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin of Iran [72].…”

Section: Hydrology and Water Resource Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles

et al. 2016

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Contemporary issues in agriculture and natural resource management (AGNR) span a wide spectrum of challenges and scales-from global climate change to resiliency in national and regional food systems to the sustainability of livelihoods of small-holder farmers-all of which may be characterized as complex problems. With rapid development of tools and technologies over the previous half century (e.g., computer simulation), a plethora of disciplines have developed methods to address individual components of these multifaceted, complex problems, oftentimes neglecting unintended consequences to other systems. A systems thinking approach is needed to (1) address these contemporary AGNR issues given their multi-and interdisciplinary aspects; (2) utilize a holistic perspective to accommodate all of the elements of the problem; and (3) include qualitative and quantitative techniques to incorporate "soft" and "hard" elements into the analyses. System dynamics (SD) methodology is uniquely suited to investigate AGNR given their inherently complex behaviors. In this paper, we review applications of SD to AGNR and discuss the potential contributions and roles of SD in addressing emergent problems of the 21st century. We identified numerous SD cases applied to water, soil, food systems, and smallholder issues. More importantly, several case studies are shown illustrating the tradeoffs between short-term and long-term strategies and the pitfalls of relying on quick fixes to AGNR problems (known as "fixes that backfire" and "shifting the burden", well-known, commonly occurring, systemic structures-or archetypes-observed across numerous management situations [Senge, P.M. The Fifth Discipline, 1st ed.; Doubleday: New York, NY, USA, 1990.]). We conclude that common attempts to alleviate AGNR problems, across continents and regardless of the type of resources involved, have suffered from reliance on short-term management strategies. To effectively address AGNR problems, longer-term thinking and strategies aimed at fundamental solutions will be needed to better identify and minimize the often delayed, and unintended, consequences arising from feedback between management interventions and AGNR systems.

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“…Their control poses a challenging problem, since it must cope with different conflicting objectives as water supply, hydropower, and flood control [1][2][3][4][5]. Operating with guide curves is a common practice in typical reservoir operation [6][7][8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Flood Control by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty: A Case Study Reservoir in Turkey

Uysal

Alvarado-Montero

Schwanenberg

et al. 2018

Water

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Abstract:Optimal control of reservoirs is a challenging task due to conflicting objectives, complex system structure, and uncertainties in the system. Real time control decisions suffer from streamflow forecast uncertainty. This study aims to use Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts (PSFs) having a lead-time up to 48 h as input for the recurrent reservoir operation problem. A related technique for decision making is multi-stage stochastic optimization using scenario trees, referred to as Tree-based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC). Deterministic Streamflow Forecasts (DSFs) are provided by applying random perturbations on perfect data. PSFs are synthetically generated from DSFs by a new approach which explicitly presents dynamic uncertainty evolution. We assessed different variables in the generation of stochasticity and compared the results using different scenarios. The developed real-time hourly flood control was applied to a test case which had limited reservoir storage and restricted downstream condition. According to hindcasting closed-loop experiment results, TB-MPC outperforms the deterministic counterpart in terms of decreased downstream flood risk according to different independent forecast scenarios. TB-MPC was also tested considering different number of tree branches, forecast horizons, and different inflow conditions. We conclude that using synthetic PSFs in TB-MPC can provide more robust solutions against forecast uncertainty by resolution of uncertainty in trees.

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System Dynamics Modeling of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management

Cited by 233 publications

References 6 publications

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles

Real-Time Flood Control by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty: A Case Study Reservoir in Turkey

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