System dynamics modelling approach to explore the effect of dog demography on rabies vaccination coverage in Africa

Chidumayo, Nozyechi Ngulube

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0205884

Cited by 14 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…4 ). Using Vensim™ with a stock and flow approach, a population dynamic model was developed as follows: the population variable was considered as stock, and the birth and death variables as flows, and birth, death rates and, carrying capacity were considered as auxiliary variables 14 , 69 . Weather, food resources and rehoming/abandonment were not used in the model and no immigration and emigration was assumed in the population.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When comparing different interventions, fertility control may most greatly reduce free-roaming dog population and improve animal welfare 11 , 12 . The efficacy and impact assessment of different FRD populations management plans should be considered in terms of reducing dog population density, improving public health and animal welfare, and performance of DPM facilities 13 , 14 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran

Shamsaddini

Gohari

Kamyabi

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Understanding dynamics of free-roaming dog (FRD) population is critical for planning and implementation of dog population management programs. FRD population size estimation as well as dynamic modeling of dog population under different female dog neutering interventions were investigated in order to determine the most appropriate animal birth control approach. We performed population size estimate of dogs using sight-resight surveys by photography in a randomly selected 25 blocks of the city and all the suburbs of greater Kerman area. Main demographic features were characterized and the dog density distribution was mapped. A dynamic model was developed to predict free-roaming dog population variations after 5 and 10 years. Different scenarios based on 10, 30, 50, 60 and 70% female dog sterilization were considered to predict the effects of animal birth control measures. Free roaming dog population was estimated at 6781 dogs (65.3% males) in Kerman and suburbs with several major population hotspots. Analysis of the dog locations within the city showed that the largest proportion of the dogs were observed in the vacant lots (46.2%). Modeling predictions indicated that, in the absence of management, the free-roaming dog population could increase from a baseline of 6781 to 13,665 dogs (2.02 fold increase) in 5 years and to 19,376 dogs in 10 years (2.86 fold increase). Using a population dynamics model, we simulated five neutering coverages to explore the impact of female neutering on free-roaming dog population size. The 5-year projections of the model have shown that 50% annual female dog sterilization significantly reduced free-roaming dog population by 0.44 comparing to the baseline population. Findings of the present study improve our knowledge on the nature and extent of dog population dynamics in Iran. Effective population control and selection of the most appropriate neutering interventions require a comprehensive knowledge of the characteristics and dynamics of FRD population.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran

Shamsaddini

Gohari

Kamyabi

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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show abstract

“…However, different levels of vaccination coverages, as well as vaccination strategies, are probably required to control rabies in different settings successfully. For instance, according to modeling studies conducted for dog populations in Africa, vaccination with 70% coverage annually is adequate to sustain herd immunity above a critical threshold [ 16 , 52 ]. However, based on our modeling results, vaccination coverage of 70% in Hatyai might still be insufficient.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study

et al. 2022

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Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are essential factors that may result in an enormous impact on the mechanism of propagation and persistence of the disease. To investigate the role of geographical structures on the transmission dynamics of canine rabies, we developed a stochastic individual-based model that integrates the exact configuration of buildings and roads. In our model, the spatial distribution of dogs was estimated based on the distribution of buildings, with roads considered to facilitate dog movement. Two contrasting areas with high- and low-risk of rabies transmission in Thailand, namely, Hatyai and Tepha districts, were chosen as study sites. Our modeling results indicated that the distinct geographical structures of buildings and roads in Hatyai and Tepha could contribute to the difference in the rabies transmission dynamics in these two areas. The high density of buildings and roads in Hatyai could facilitate more rabies transmission. We also investigated the impacts of rabies intervention, including reducing the dog population, restricting owned dog movement, and dog vaccination on the spread of canine rabies in these two areas. We found that reducing the dog population alone might not be sufficient for preventing rabies transmission in the high-risk area. Owned dog confinement could reduce more the likelihood of rabies transmission. Finally, a higher vaccination coverage may be required for controlling rabies transmission in the high-risk area compared to the low-risk area.

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“…Therefore, in a growing or high turnover population, the outbreaks will likely be larger and longer (only 4% of all outbreaks lasted longer than a year in this study) and the vaccination strategies might perform differently–overall vaccination coverage might not be achieved with targeted strategies, or targeting explorer and roamer dogs could be even more critical to stop rabies spread. Some studies have modelled vaccination campaigns in high turnover dog populations and have found that annual vaccination with 70% coverage is sufficient to maintain herd immunity above a critical level [42, 43]. However, these studies were performed on rabies endemic populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns

et al. 2019

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Australia is currently canine rabies free. However, communities located on the northern coastline–such as the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland–are at risk of an incursion due to their large populations of susceptible free-roaming dogs and proximity to rabies-infected Indonesian islands. A rabies-spread model was used to simulate potential outbreaks and evaluate various disease control strategies. A heterogeneous contact structure previously described in the population of interest– explorer dogs, roamer dogs and stay-at-home dogs–was incorporated into the model using six spatial kernels describing contacts between dog roaming categories. Twenty-seven vaccination strategies were investigated based on a complete block design of 50%, 70% and 90% coverage for each of the three roaming categories to simulate various targeted vaccination strategies. The 27 strategies were implemented in four population structures in which the proportion of dogs in each category varied– explorer dominant, roamer dominant, stay-at-home dominant and a field population (based on field estimates of population structure). The overall vaccination coverage varied depending on the subpopulation targeted for vaccination and the population structure modelled. A total of 108 scenarios were simulated 2000 times and the model outputs (outbreak size and duration) were compared to Strategy 14 (a standard recommended overall 70% vaccination coverage). In general, targeting explorer dogs–and to a lesser extent roamer dogs–produced similar outbreaks to Strategy 14 but with a lower overall vaccination coverage. Similarly, strategies that targeted stay-at-home dogs required a higher vaccination coverage to produce significantly smaller and shorter outbreaks. This study provides some theoretical evidence that targeting subpopulations of dogs for vaccination based on their roaming behaviours (and therefore risk of rabies transmission) could be more efficient than blanket 70% vaccination campaigns. Such information can be used in preparedness planning to help improve control of a potential rabies incursion in Australia.

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System dynamics modelling approach to explore the effect of dog demography on rabies vaccination coverage in Africa

Cited by 14 publications

References 49 publications

Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran

Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran

The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study

Modelling targeted rabies vaccination strategies for a domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns

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