System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

Abstract

Purpose System dynamics is a whole-system modelling and learning approach, useful for tackling non-linear problems, such as sustainable urban development. The purpose of this paper is to review system dynamics applications in the simulation of sustainable urban development over a period from 2005 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach The analysis reveals that the number of applications of system dynamics modelling in the area of urban sustainable development increased in the analysed period. Research has changed its focus from the modelling of environmental problems to more complex models, portraying the multidimensional socio-economic processes that have an impact on the sustainability of urban development. Analysed case studies most often use the behaviour reproduction test for model validation, but without a unified approach. In most cases, modelling has been done in China, Germany and the USA, while urban development in the Eastern European countries, Africa and Latin America has not often been investigated. This paper indicates the knowledge gaps and suggests future research directions. Findings Papers that report the use of system dynamics modelling reveal a wide range of applications in urban sustainability. The analysis shows significant emphasis on environmental problems, while the interest for modelling social problems has been increasing during the last several years. Most of the modelled problems examine the sustainability of resources (land, water) and waste management, which are used for insights into the reasons for the system behaviour, forecasting future behaviour and policy testing. Originality/value The presented models were developed in most cases for the purpose of understanding the phenomena examined, as well as the future use of the models in policy planning. This brings us back to the need for greater stakeholder involvement, not only in the initial phase, but also during the whole modelling process, which could increase understanding, use and ownership of the models in the future, and thus increase their practical application.

A System Dynamics Model and Analytic Network Process: An Integrated Approach to Investigate Urban Resilience

“…Therefore, it can be also used to support the definition of policies for sustainable development [70,71]. As a matter of fact, an increasing amount of SDM applications have been recognized in the literature in the last few decades [72]. In detail, SDMs are nowadays applied for dynamic and complex systems that involve a high level of uncertainty.…”

“…In detail, SDMs are nowadays applied for dynamic and complex systems that involve a high level of uncertainty. Important fields of application are: transportation [73], land use [74], environment management [75], waste management [76], project management [77] and sustainable urban development [46,72,78,79]. However, there are few existing studies that have applied SDMs to simulate and to evaluate urban resilience within its evolution over time [38,80].…”

Dynamic Models for Exploring the Resilience in Territorial Scenarios

“…This paper aims to provide an epistemological perspective of the application of dynamic models in resilience assessment, underlying the possible contribution to this issue through the analysis of a real case study and methodological framework. The main objective of this work is to lay the basis for future compared applications of these two models to the same case study.in order to underline dynamic model (DM) features that are closely related to the decision-making process in territorial and urban planning [11]. DMs are recognized as suitable tools to evaluate policies and actions aimed at increasing urban resilience [12][13][14].…”

“…This property is related to the fact that these models are built and grounded on dimensions related to both urban systems and urban resilience. In fact, during the construction of the model, it is necessary to select and identify which aspects of a territorial system have to be included with reference to the evaluation goal, from the environmental to the economic dimension [11,12,15]. In this sense, DMs are able to reveal both the dynamic behavior of urban and territorial systems and the impacts of policies on the key variables identified.Specifically, the main aim of this work is to study the principal characteristics of the system dynamics model (SDM) and Lotka-Volterra models (LV) in order to apply both to the same case study.…”

“…in order to underline dynamic model (DM) features that are closely related to the decision-making process in territorial and urban planning [11]. DMs are recognized as suitable tools to evaluate policies and actions aimed at increasing urban resilience [12][13][14].…”