System Dynamics (SD) -based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects

Xu, Yang; Sun, Chuang; Skibniewski, Mirosław J.; Chan, Albert P.C.; Yeung, John F. Y.; Hu, Cheng

doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.06.001

Cited by 92 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Besides, the government is usually criticized for low-efficiency in the provision of public services and public goods (Afonso et al, 2005;Borge et al, 2008). BOT, as an innovative approach of mobilizing private sector's funding, efficient management and technology, has therefore been more and more important in providing public infrastructure (Xu et al, 2012). BOT is a contract arrangement, where the private investor finances the design, construction, maintenance, and operation of a public infrastructure for a specific concession period, and transfers the ownership to the government at the end of the concession period (Algarni et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An alternative incomplete information bargaining model for identifying the reasonable concession period of a BOT project

Bao

Peng

Ablanedo-Rosas

et al. 2015

International Journal of Project Management

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An alternative incomplete information bargaining model for identifying the reasonable concession period of a BOT project

Bao

Peng

Ablanedo-Rosas

et al. 2015

International Journal of Project Management

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“…Concessionaires rely on collecting user payments in order to recover initial investment (Qiao et al 2009;Xu et al 2012). To protect public welfare, public sector usually imposes price ceiling to the concession price (Islam et al 2006;Subprasom, Chen 2007).…”

Section: Concession Pricementioning

confidence: 99%

Balancing Public and Private Interests Through Optimization of Concession Agreement Design for User-Pay PPP Projects

Feng

Wang

et al. 2018

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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Abstract. In user-pay public private partnership (PPP) projects, private sectors collect user fees to cover cost and reap revenue. For projects that cannot be self-financed, public sectors usually invest public funds to make them financially feasible. The concession agreement allocates revenues and risks, and lies in the center of balancing public and private interests. However, stakeholders may have contrary opinions regarding the optimization of concession agreement. While private sectors are concerned about earning money, public sectors pay more attention to the efficient use of public funds. To address this challenge, this paper firstly identifies several key concessionary items, including concession period, concession price, capital structure and government subsidy. Then, a multi-objective optimization model is presented using discounted cash flow method, in which key concessionary items act as decision variables and public and private interests are represented by two sub-objectives. Subsequently, the model is solved using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Furthermore, a numerical case based on Beijing No. 4 Metro Line is provided to demonstrate the application of the model. Results show that the proposed model can produce a series of viable combinations of concessionary items that balance public and private interests, which provides practical references for relative decision making activities.

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“…The results were showed in Table 33.5. If there is a competition line in the user area, the traffic forecast accuracy will be seriously damaged, and lead to the lack of the expected return [7,11,12,14] F28 Toll risk Overpriced toll may cause traffic decrease or public opposition, and the project may have to be transferred early [5,7,11,14,15] …”

Section: Descriptive Statistics Of Survey Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of the Residual Value Risk Factors for Road PPP Projects in China: Questionnaire Survey and Analysis

Shao

Yuan

2016

Proceedings of the 20th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate

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With the increasing use of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) mode in road construction, the discrepancy between residual value and agreement of PPP projects in the transition phase has become a prominent problem. Though the risk management of road PPP projects has been lucubrated, systematic research of residual value of them are still in a state of blank. Research described in this paper aims to identify the residual value risk (RVR) factors of road PPP projects and find out the key factors of them. RVR factors of road PPP projects were first identified through the method of literature collection. In this research, 29 RVR factors were identified which were divided into 4 packages. The importance degree of each factor was then presented via descriptive analysis and confirmatory factor analysis based on the data of a questionnaire survey which explored PPP experts' perceptions of 29 factors. The order of the importance degree of each factor indicates that the incidence of residual risks within road PPP projects is strongly influenced by organizational risk, design risk, construction costs, quality of projects, operating costs, quality of service, maintenance costs, market demand and toll pricing. These 29 factors can be used to recognize the risk source and reduce the incidence of residual risks of road PPP projects.

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System Dynamics (SD) -based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects

Cited by 92 publications

References 25 publications

An alternative incomplete information bargaining model for identifying the reasonable concession period of a BOT project

An alternative incomplete information bargaining model for identifying the reasonable concession period of a BOT project

Balancing Public and Private Interests Through Optimization of Concession Agreement Design for User-Pay PPP Projects

Identification of the Residual Value Risk Factors for Road PPP Projects in China: Questionnaire Survey and Analysis

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