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Abstract— In the 2010s, in Russia, many conditions for the development of agriculture and the food industry changed, having experienced the consequences of the 2008 and 2014 crises and import restrictions on certain types of agricultural products and food from the EU and other countries. In Russia’s state political agenda, attention to food security has increased and the import substitution policy has intensified. Using the example of Leningrad Oblast, a region located in the zone of influence of the largest agglomeration and neighboring EU countries, the article attempts to answer the questions of who became the true beneficiaries of the food embargo and to what extent external influences have altered the sectoral and territorial structure of food production and to what extent they made it possible to overcome the local context—increase production in peripheral areas. The 2014 food embargo opened up colossal free niches in the market of St. Petersburg, with a population of 5 mln. The analysis showed that there were no fundamental changes in the sectoral structure, but in absolute terms, vegetable production increased significantly, which is directly related to the change in competition due to the food embargo and improvement in credit policy conditions. The dependence of the territorial structure of agriculture on the state of the largest enterprises increased. However, no fundamental changes have been observed in the production of certain food products. The reasons for this are a decrease in demand due to a drop in purchasing power of the population during crisis periods, an insignificant raw materials base in the region, the use of new opportunities by enterprises in St. Petersburg itself, filling the market with goods from neighboring regions and imported products from non-EU countries, owing to its seaside position and presence of a port.
Abstract— In the 2010s, in Russia, many conditions for the development of agriculture and the food industry changed, having experienced the consequences of the 2008 and 2014 crises and import restrictions on certain types of agricultural products and food from the EU and other countries. In Russia’s state political agenda, attention to food security has increased and the import substitution policy has intensified. Using the example of Leningrad Oblast, a region located in the zone of influence of the largest agglomeration and neighboring EU countries, the article attempts to answer the questions of who became the true beneficiaries of the food embargo and to what extent external influences have altered the sectoral and territorial structure of food production and to what extent they made it possible to overcome the local context—increase production in peripheral areas. The 2014 food embargo opened up colossal free niches in the market of St. Petersburg, with a population of 5 mln. The analysis showed that there were no fundamental changes in the sectoral structure, but in absolute terms, vegetable production increased significantly, which is directly related to the change in competition due to the food embargo and improvement in credit policy conditions. The dependence of the territorial structure of agriculture on the state of the largest enterprises increased. However, no fundamental changes have been observed in the production of certain food products. The reasons for this are a decrease in demand due to a drop in purchasing power of the population during crisis periods, an insignificant raw materials base in the region, the use of new opportunities by enterprises in St. Petersburg itself, filling the market with goods from neighboring regions and imported products from non-EU countries, owing to its seaside position and presence of a port.
The agriculture of the Russian Federation is an important part of the national economy, the basis for ensuring the country’s food security. The development of agriculture is influenced by both internal factors (climate, economy, labor resources, state support for the industry, etc.) and external factors (sanctions from unfriendly countries, world market prices, etc.). The importance of increasing the competitiveness of the Russian agricultural industry in the international market has increased with the launch of a special military operation in 2022, as it has faced new challenges. As a result of large-scale political pressure from unfriendly states, the country was cut off from imports of equipment, spare parts, technologies and seeds necessary for the agro-industrial sector, supply chains were disrupted, prices for imported goods increased, and problems arose with exports. Despite these difficulties, Russian agriculture, despite the decline in crop production, due to the growth of indicators in dairy and meat animal husbandry, shows a steady increase in total production. So, in comparison with 2017, the volume of milk production by 2021 increased by 7%, and meat of all types - by 10%. The level of self-sufficiency of the Russian Federation in 2021 exceeded the threshold levels of the Food Security Doctrine for the production of grain, sugar, meat and meat products; below the threshold level was the production of potatoes, milk and dairy products, vegetables and gourds, fruits and berries. Also, a positive moment in the development of the agricultural sector is the increase in the volume of exports of the industry’s products both in kind and in monetary terms, the structure of exports has improved, where there are more and more products of processed agricultural raw materials. However, at present, the sanctions of unfriendly countries have a negative impact on the development of agriculture in the Russian Federation and on its competitiveness in the international market. To solve the problems of the industry, it is necessary to strengthen state support for agricultural producers, aimed at increasing investment and innovation activity in the industry, developing import substitution (creating new industries) and ensuring food security.
This paper highlights the issues of import substitution in the context of attaining total macro-economic balance, market adaptation, and achieving new levels of regional economic development as a constituent part of the national economy of the Russian Federation. An effective strategy and goal management are the important forward-looking orientation points of the existence and development of the country. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that economic growth in the region can be estimated via the GRP per capita. To define the sectors and regions with a successful implementation of a substitution policy, our own special algorithm for sorting and classifying regions was used. This algorithm made it possible to estimate the effectiveness of the economic policy, if any. To confirm and estimate the hypothesis, tests based on panel data models were carried out. The results revealed that the economic policy of import substitution was 10% more efficient in the regions where it was implemented than those without an implemented policy.
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