System simulation and policy optimization of China's coal production capacity deviation in terms of the economy, environment, and energy security

Yang, Qing; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Jinsuo; Zou, Shaohui

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102314

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Wang et al [38] started from the allocation of coal mine energy in Shandong Province, and reserved redundant capacity under the condition of ensuring economy by optimizing the coal production distribution of coal mines. Yang et al [39] modeled the deviations of Chinese government policies in terms of economy, environment, energy security, etc., analyzed the time lag of coal policies, and proposed a policy combination to reduce new production capacity and improve socio-economic characteristics…”

Section: The Impact Of the Proportion Of Coal Importmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Zhang

2023

Sustainability

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The global trends of coal phase-out in response to climate change are meeting obstacles in China, where a stable operation of power-coal supply chains remains essential. How to guarantee the resilience of these supply chains during the low-carbon transition becomes a critical issue. This study aims to recommend corresponding strategies by modelling and analysis. A system dynamics model was developed to analyze scenarios of China’s power-coal supply from 2021 to 2060. The results indicated that, firstly, the capacity redundancy of coal mines will increase from 1.13 to 1.32 before 2045, with the rising power-coal demand and its volatility, followed by a sharp decrease after that, in which demand falls in all scenarios. Secondly, increasing coal stock in each link can effectively reduce capacity redundancy of coal mines and imports during the period of rising demand, resulting in 250 million tons of coal mine capacity reduction, but will lead to an opposite result when demand falls. Finally, under high demand fluctuations, coal transport capacity will become a key constraint. It is recommended that China must improve the capacity redundancy of coal mines, coal stock, and coal transport in the near-term, as well as enhance long-term planning to carefully coordinate these factors during the whole process of low-carbon transition.

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Section: The Impact Of the Proportion Of Coal Importmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Zhang

2023

Sustainability

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“…Wang D et al (2018) also set up three scenarios, namely Policy Regulation Scenario, Baseline as Usual Scenario, and Policy Strengthening Scenario, and used the system dynamics model to predict China's future coal demand. Yang Q et al (2021) used the Markov chain model to predict the structure of primary energy consumption and set three scenarios according to different economic growth rates to test whether the carbon intensity target can be achieved under the three scenarios. Then, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) was used to investigate the impact of economic structure adjustment on the economic development and carbon emissions.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the complexity, the coal demand system also has the characteristics like nonlinear, dynamic, and time delay. It is affected by the insufficient data and the difficulty of quantifying some parameters or relations, making the system dynamics more suitable for the research of the coal demand system than the general econometric model (Li et al, 2021;Yang Q et al, 2021;Hosseinipooya et al, 2022). Therefore, this paper uses the system dynamics model and analyzes the causal relationship between system variables according to the influencing factors, clarifies the stocks, variables, auxiliary functions and parameters in the model, and then draws the coal demand system dynamics flow diagram and constructs the coal demand system dynamics model, so as to achieve the purpose of exploring the changing trend of coal demand in the future.…”

Section: System Dynamics Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on coal demand forecast and carbon emission reduction in Shanxi Province under the vision of carbon peak

Zhang²,

Qie³

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Facing the increasingly severe climate situation, China strives to improve its Nationally Determined Contributions, promising to reach its carbon peak by 2030. Accurately predicting the future demand quantity and changing the trends of coal resources is the key to maintaining national energy security and achieving the goal of “carbon peak” and is also an important research topic in the future. To improve the prediction accuracy, this study sorts out eight common factors affecting the coal demand from the aspects of the economy, population, and energy. The grey relational analysis method was used to describe the degree of importance of each factor and screen out the relatively vital factors. The system dynamics model for coal demand in Shanxi Province was also established. The coal demand and carbon emission trends in Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2030 were predicted under business-as-usual, low-speed and high-speed development scenarios. The study results show that: 1) During the 14th Five-Year Plan to 15th Five-year Plan, the trend of coal demand has changed from increasing to decreasing. Under the three scenarios, the coal demand in 2021 is expected to be 372.03 million tons, 365.97 million tons, 360.04 million tons, and it is expected that the coal demand will peak in 2025, and will reach 394.77 million tons, 390.27 million tons, and 385.66 million tons under the three scenarios, respectively. 2) With the development of population and economy, the total energy demand shows a continuously increasing trend. It is estimated that the total energy consumption will reach 237.46-242.93 million tons of standard coal in 2030, and the total energy demand will continue to grow in the foreseeable future. 3) The carbon dioxide emission is closely related to the coal demand, showing a similar variation trend. Under the business-as-usual development scenario, carbon emissions in 2021 are 699.62 million tons, and carbon emissions are expected to reach 681.12 million tons in 2030. The low-speed development and high-speed development scenarios have different degrees of energy saving and emission reduction benefits. Compared with the business-as-usual development scenario in 2030, the carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 1.64 million tons and 3.56 million tons respectively. Finally, we put forward important policy measures to promote the economic transformation and upgrading of Shanxi Province and accelerate the realization of the “carbon peak” goal.

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“…However, almost 80% of energy demand is provided by fossil energy, which has resulted in many disadvantages such as environmental pollution and human health (Mehrenjani et al, 2022). Energy and environmental issues are two important challenges for the social development healthily (Yang et al, 2021), the traditional energy consumption pattern based on fossil energy is unsustainable with the target of carbon neutrality (Li et al, 2021). In this situation, the huge changes must take place in the global energy system that convert a system which is mainly based on fossil fuels to renewable energy (He et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scheduling optimization of wind-thermal interconnected low-carbon power system integrated with hydrogen storage

Wang

Zhao

2023

Preprint

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To improve the consumption of wind energy and reduce carbon emission, this paper proposes a wind-thermal interconnected low-carbon power system integrated with hydrogen storage. An energy scheduling optimization model aiming at minimizing the daily operation cost of the system is constructed considering environmental operation cost quantification, and Whale Optimization Algorithm is used to optimize multiple variables. Finally, in simulation example, various scenarios are set considering the application way of hydrogen and the scenarios with and without the carbon capture and storage (CCS) are optimized respectively. The horizontal comparison results show that the system with hydrogen production (S2) and the system with hydrogen fuel cell (S3) have higher economic operation cost than that of wind-thermal interconnected power system only (S1), but the environmental cost is reduced. The wind curtailment rate decreases from 11.0% (S1) to 3.8% (S2 and S3) without CCS, and from 9.0% (S1) to 2.1% (S2 and S3) with CCS. The longitudinal comparison shows that the thermal power output is reduced and the wind power consumption is improved with CCS. The total operating cost increases, but the environmental cost decreases significantly. Configuring hydrogen storage system in the wind-thermal interconnected power system can effectively promote the consumption of wind energy and reduce the system operation cost, however, the utilization of CCS is economic unfriendly at present.

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System simulation and policy optimization of China's coal production capacity deviation in terms of the economy, environment, and energy security

Cited by 16 publications

References 29 publications

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Research on coal demand forecast and carbon emission reduction in Shanxi Province under the vision of carbon peak

Scheduling optimization of wind-thermal interconnected low-carbon power system integrated with hydrogen storage

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