Systematic Calibration of a Convection‐Resolving Model: Application Over Tropical Atlantic

Liu, Shuchang; Zeman, Christian; Sørland, Silje Lund; Schär, Christoph

doi:10.1029/2022jd037303

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…This bias was found to be caused by overestimation cloud (i.e., cloud opacity) rather than fraction (Heim al., 2021). As shown by Liu et al (2022), this bias of the COSMO model at kilometer-resolution can be reduced through systematic model calibration. The model version used here is still based on a set of empirical parameters that were calibrated for applications over continental regions of the mid-latitudes (Bellprat et al, 2016).…”

Section: Evaluation Of Ctrlmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The set of empirical parameters used in this study differs from other COSMO setups that have been used over Africa (Bucchignani et al, 2016;Sørland et al, 2021). A calibration effort similar as it was done for the tropical Atlantic in Liu et al (2022), but for continental Africa would likely result in a simulation setup with less biased deep convection overall. Yet, with upcoming global KRM simulations in mind, it should be noted that a set of model parameters with global validity will be necessary.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Ctrlmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Application of the Pseudo‐Global Warming Approach in a Kilometer‐Resolution Climate Simulation of the Tropics

2023

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Clouds over tropical oceans are among the most uncertain factors controlling Earth's temperature response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Forster et al., 2021). They form along the branches of the Hadley circulation (HC, e.g., Held & Hou, 1980), for instance, in the form of deep convection at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) (Waliser & Gautier, 1993) and shallow convection in the marine boundary layer (MBL) in the Trades (e.g., Stevens, 2007;Vial et al., 2017;Wood, 2012). Tropical clouds have the potential for a strong radiative feedback in a warming climate (Bony & Dufresne, 2005;Zelinka et al., 2016). Yet, their evolution with climate change is uncertain (e.g., Bretherton, 2015), making them a prime focus of current climate change research.Model intercomparison projects of global climate models (GCMs) such as the fifth or sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5, CMIP6, Eyring et al., 2016;Taylor et al., 2012) allow for an assessment of the magnitude and inter-model variability of cloud changes in a large ensemble of state-of-the-art GCMs. With respect to tropical deep convection at the ITCZ, many GCMs project that the upper part of the clouds (i.e., the anvils) will rise in a warming atmosphere and remain at approximately the same temperature, according to the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis (Hartmann & Larson, 2002). As the anvils rise, they find themselves in

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Section: Evaluation Of Ctrlmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Evaluation Of Ctrlmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the Pseudo‐Global Warming Approach in a Kilometer‐Resolution Climate Simulation of the Tropics

2023

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“…On the one hand, the dynamical processes that act to produce and amplify what we call internal variability arise from first principles and should therefore be present in models. On the other hand, models undergo additional calibrations to account for certain unknown physical parameters (tuning); preservation of internal variability is rarely accounted for and sometimes reduced through the tuning process (Hourdin et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Internal Variability of the Climate System Mirrored in Decadal‐Scale Trends of Surface Solar Radiation

et al. 2023

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Decadal-scale unforced variability of the climate system is mostly associated with patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) changes (Deser, Alexander, et al., 2010) as the ocean, being a slower component of the climate system, is able to exhibit modes of variability on such temporal scales. This climate system variability is reflected in variations in the different energy budget components such as the shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many aspects of climate variability, that is, the SST pattern, can be traced back to different modes of variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), etc. A convenient way to describe the temporal evolution of these modes of climate variability in time are their corresponding climate indices (Nino3.4 index, PDO index, and AMO index), which are usually computed upon the SST anomaly. The effects of ENSO and PDO on the Earth's radiative budget have been investigated in Loeb et al. (2012Loeb et al. ( , 2018, where the regional distribution of the TOA shortwave flux is shown to match an SST pattern representative for PDO and tropical

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Internal variability of the climate system mirrored in decadal-scale trends of surface solar radiation

Chtirkova

Folini

Correa

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Decadal-scale unforced climate variability is often associated with low-frequency ocean (or coupled) modes, exerted on the atmosphere through the time-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. We seek to find a relationship between well-known climate modes of variability (ENSO, PDO, AMO, etc.), which are reflected in the SSTs, and decadal trends in surface solar radiation (SSR). The analysis is performed using the pre-industrial control runs (piControl) of 57 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 and 12 climate indices are considered. We find that that regional SSR trends occur during periods when a climate mode is transitioning and show a mirroring pattern (opposite sign SSR trends) when the mode transitions in the opposite direction. Unforced trends in clear-sky SSR are mostly driven by SST-induced water vapour changes, while all-sky SSR trends show a complex spatial structure with trends of different signs in different regions. Unforced SSR trends are generally weaker for climatological SSTs. The role of natural aerosols as another potentially relevant factor for SSR variability is briefly addressed. The results from this study can be used to infer whether historical dimming and brightening has been enhanced of suppressed by SST-pattern related internal variability and to aid the forecasts of photovoltaic energy production given the projections of the climate modes.

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Systematic Calibration of a Convection‐Resolving Model: Application Over Tropical Atlantic

Cited by 6 publications

References 68 publications

Application of the Pseudo‐Global Warming Approach in a Kilometer‐Resolution Climate Simulation of the Tropics

Application of the Pseudo‐Global Warming Approach in a Kilometer‐Resolution Climate Simulation of the Tropics

Internal Variability of the Climate System Mirrored in Decadal‐Scale Trends of Surface Solar Radiation

Internal variability of the climate system mirrored in decadal-scale trends of surface solar radiation

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