Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

Abstract

Abstract:We report striking evidence of semi-strong inefficiency in the UK fixed-odds football betting market using a reputable newspaper tipster which offers probabilities of match outcomes rather than simple result indicators. Betting on the Fink Tank probabilities of home wins across 10 bookmakers, when there are positive expected returns, would have generated positive returns in each of the seasons from 2006-07 to 2011-12 for a variety of different betting strategies. These returns could have been enhanced by employing the best odds from a greater number of bookmakers. However, the fact that pure arbitrage bets have existed for years and appear to last for several hours or days suggest they are in practice not exploitable to a magnitude that poses any threat to bookmakers.

Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines

“…This is consistent with other attempts in the literature to compare statistical models and bookmakers as football match forecasters (e.g. Boshnakov et al., 2017; Buraimo et al., 2013), though in these previous cases, the comparisons used betting strategies and returns on investment, and focused on match results rather than scorelines.…”

“…Similarly, Buraimo et al. (2013) have shown that using straightforward betting strategies for football match results, whenever positive returns were expected based on the University of Warwick's “Fink Tank” statistical model's probability forecasts, which were published in a British newspaper, would have generated positive expected returns for each season of the English Premier League between 2006/07 and 2011/12.…”