Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience Analysis of Electric and Transport Network Failure in Cases of Extreme Winter Storms

Molarius, Riitta; Tuomaala, Pekka; Piira, Kalevi; Räikkönen, Minna; Aubrecht, Christoph; Polese, Maria; Zuccaro, Giulio; Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina; Rannat, Kalev

doi:10.1061/9780784413609.062

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…that, being able to invest the same element at risk, require the articulated and uncertain evaluation of the progressive cumulative and final damage. The overall assessment of volcanic eruption damage includes issues, such as the estimate of time-dependent vulnerability [Zuccaro and De Gregorio, 2013], or of the chain effects [Dihé et al, 2013;Molarius et al, 2014;Zuccaro et al, 2018] and the evaluation of direct and indirect economic damage , which are outside the scope of this paper.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessments in volcanic areas - The Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei cases studies

Zuccaro

Gregorio

2019

Annals of Geophysics

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The emergency planning of areas subjected to volcanic risk requires the evaluation of impact induced on different element exposed (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) by different volcanic phenomena (precursor earthquakes, ash fall, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tsunami, ballistics, landslides, etc.).In this paper, we describe the methodology developed at PLINIVS Study Centre (University of Naples Federico II, Italy), Centre of Competence of the Italian Civil Protection, in the framework of volcanic risk assessment, concerning the active volcanoes of Campania Region.The approach is based on probabilistic analyses of risk and impact scenarios. It allows quantifying the potential losses consequent to possible volcanic eruptions. The results are strongly dependent on the hypothesis assumed and on the parameters used as inputs, providing impact scenarios with a probabilistic estimation and uncertainty treatment. The results constitute a useful tool for emergency planners and decision makers in the evaluation of the resources needed to improve the preparedness measures and to implement technically feasible and cost-effective mitigation measures on buildings and infrastructures. The scope is to reduce the expected damage and to ensure the practicability of the emergency plan, e.g. by the seismic retrofitting of vulnerable buildings along the escape routes identified in the evacuation plan, which might fail due to the presence of debris from buildings collapsed, because of precursor earthquakes, which can affect the practicability of roads.The paper is focused on the relevant applications performed by PLINIVS simulation model for the preparation and updating of the emergency plan for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessments in volcanic areas - The Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei cases studies

Zuccaro

Gregorio

2019

Annals of Geophysics

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“…For these reasons, in the last two decades, several national and international projects and research studies have been promoted with the aim of evaluating transportation network risk assessment and to estimate the potential losses induced by natural and man-made catastrophic events [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10], and other more recent studies implementing GIS environment have been presented for vulnerability assessment [11,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic Resilience Assessment Strategy for Social and Sustainability Impact Evaluation on Transportation Road Network: A Seismic Liquefaction-Induced Damage Application

et al. 2022

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Transport networks play a critical role for living communities, as they facilitate the exchange of people and goods and foster economic growth. Improving their resilience against seismic hazards, among which liquefaction is by far one of the most significant and complex, is consistent with most of the Sustainable Development Goals pinpointed by the United Nations’ Agenda. In this paper, an original methodological framework, combining innovative Geo-statistical approaches to analyze soil properties, prediction models for soil liquefaction, and calibrated transport demand models providing the social and economic cost associated with seismic-induced road damages and closures within a renewed Geographical Information Systems (GIS) workspace, is proposed. In particular, based on traditional risk assessment evaluation, an innovative approach to evaluate the exposure in terms of economic loss due to lack of accessibility is presented. The methodology is applied to a district area in northern Italy that underwent a recent seismic event that caused several soil liquefaction phenomena. Results provided by a sensitivity analysis on a stochastic (return period) basis are derived: as the seismic intensity increases, the total social costs increase, but the trend of the rates due to traffic delays and the loss of accessibility are irregular. Although further simulation scenarios need to be undertaken, the proposed methodology seems to provide an effective planning tool to evaluate preventive strategies aimed at improving the resilience of transport networks against liquefaction risk.

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Simplified Approach for Liquefaction Risk Assessment of Transportation Systems: Preliminary Outcomes

D’Apuzzo

Evangelisti

Modoni

et al. 2020

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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In the present study, a strategy to assess liquefaction risk of road infrastructures has been proposed, as combination of liquefaction hazard, infrastructures vulnerability and exposure of transportation network. The proposed methodology includes a capacity analysis of the road network performed on both pre- and post-liquefaction scenarios to evaluate the social cost in terms of delay cost suffered by the transportation system. The approach has been applied to the municipality of Terre del Reno (Italy), that in 2012 suffered a severe seismic sequence that induced extensive liquefaction evidences over the territory. A multi-layer database, on a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) platform, has been created, with the aim to overlap information about subsoil, earthquake intensity, groundwater depth and road network configuration. The Vulnerability of road has been evaluated by the settlements of embankment on liquefied soils and, according to the damage level occurred, a loss of functionality has been assigned. Finally, performing a transportation analysis, the effects on the traffic conditions have been evaluated in terms of Total Delay Cost, suffer by the road users. Preliminary results showed a redistribution of the traffic flows caused by the service loss of crucial road sections due to the liquefaction evidences on the transportation network and the related Total Delay Cost has been quantified.

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Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience Analysis of Electric and Transport Network Failure in Cases of Extreme Winter Storms

Cited by 6 publications

References 6 publications

Impact assessments in volcanic areas - The Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei cases studies

Impact assessments in volcanic areas - The Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei cases studies

Seismic Resilience Assessment Strategy for Social and Sustainability Impact Evaluation on Transportation Road Network: A Seismic Liquefaction-Induced Damage Application

Simplified Approach for Liquefaction Risk Assessment of Transportation Systems: Preliminary Outcomes

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