Systems dynamics modelling to assess the sustainability of renewable energy technologies in developing countries

Abstract

The 'water-energy nexus' is now receiving more attention as policy-and decision-makers grapple with measures to enable the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy. South Africa, in particular, finds itself in a polycrisis in terms of dealing with economic development, to alleviate poverty, within water and energy constraints. In the Western Cape Province of the country, desalination is suggested as one solution to the water shortage crisis, but the critical issue is that of energy supply, and the related cost implications, for water supply; concentrated solar thermal technology options are currently considered. In this paper a systems dynamics approach is used to assess the sustainability of these types of renewable energy technologies. The objectives of the paper are thus twofold. Firstly, the paper demonstrates the potential suitability of system dynamics modelling to inform policy-and decision-making in the developing country context. Secondly, the paper highlights the sustainability issues that must be addressed appropriately if concentrated solar thermal, and other renewable energy systems, are to be used in developing countries at the scale of desalination. Recommendations are made accordingly to improve the analysis, and its usefulness, to utilise this technique effectively in the future.

A Qualitative Based Causal-Loop Diagram for Understanding Policy Design Challenges for a Sustainable Transition Pathway: The Case of Tees Valley Region, UK

“…The framework used to analyse the papers, alongside meta-analysis figures from the analysis, are presented in Appendix A, Figures A1-A3, and Table A1. Application of the system dynamics approaches to analyse topics that are classified as complex systems, such as energy system transition and development and policymaking, has been used since the 1960s and has become more significant and relevant in recent decades [38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. Reference [90] presented a technology sustainability assessment framework that integrates technology development, sustainable development, and a system dynamic approach focused on improving the ability of technology developers to understand the negative and positive impacts of their technology and help to improve sustainable energy technology policy implementation.…”

“…System dynamics is often seen as a highly effective methodology to capture such dynamic relationships. It offers a way to construct a qualitative illustration of dynamic relationships through the application of causal loop diagrams [38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. The reason for selecting and applying this method is reinforced by the fact that, in recent years, the system dynamics were applied to problems related to analysing and assessing energy transition and energy planning, such as alternative fuel vehicle implementation and integration policies [46][47][48], implementation and impact of biomass energy [34,49,50] planning of residential buildings' energy use in smart cities [51][52][53], country-level evaluation of renewable electricity development, understanding urban sustainability on a city level, and understanding sustainability and the social aspects of energy systems [54][55][56][57].…”

The Role of Renewable Energy Resources in Sustainability of Water Desalination as a Potential Fresh-Water Source: An Updated Review

“…The decisions in Perth have been focused on the supply-side, while in South East Queensland, in addition to the supply side, demand-side management was considered in decisions. Another study [122] proposed a framework to evaluate the policies in the water and energy sectors to develop concentrated solar thermal technologies coupled with desalination technologies in South Africa. This study aimed to assist policy-makers in truly understanding the nexus and complexity of the water and energy systems they are attempting to influence.…”

“…Heavily subsidized prices can induce changes in user behavior and cause an unexpected increase in irresponsible utilization and inefficient resource use by ignoring the demand-side behavior in policy-making [9]. • Sustainable solutions to meet future water demand in the UAE Social Discussion Qualitative -National [120] • Investigation the policies regarding to autonomous desalination in the EU Social Discussion Qualitative -Regional [123] • Investigation the policies regarding to autonomous desalination in Turkey Social Discussion Qualitative -National [124] • Evaluating the social acceptance of RO units powering by solar electricity using surveys Social Discussion Qualitative -Rural [118] • Proposing a framework to evaluate water-energy polices Policy Discussion Qualitative -Regional [122] • • Co-locating pumped hydro storage with reverse osmosis desalination plant Technical and Environmental Optimization Quantitative Deterministic City [30] • Operating an MED desalination process by ocean energy (thermal energy which is harnessed from seawater temperature gradient) Technical Process simulation Quantitative Deterministic Stand-alone [64] • Proposing a tool for operating a reverse electrodialysis system to produce power (salinity gradient power) Technical Process simulation Quantitative Deterministic Laboratory scale [51] • Studying optimal climate conditions for operating small-scaled RO desalination units coupled with PV systems Technical Experimental Quantitative Deterministic Laboratory scale [85] • Studying the capability of an RO desalination plant to manage the variability of renewable energy production Technical Process simulation Quantitative Deterministic City [59] • Studying the performance of a combination of the MED process with solar still desalination powered by solar thermal and waste heat Technical Experimental Quantitative Deterministic Laboratory scale [86] • Operating an MSF desalination unit powered with a hybrid energy system including solar, geothermal, and ocean thermal energy Technical Process design Quantitative Deterministic - [127] • Modeling the integration of MED unit with solar and geothermal resources Technical Process simulation Quantitative Deterministic Island [40] • Introducing an energy management and control system for an RO desalination connected to a DC micro-grid (PV-Battery) Technical and Economic Fuzzy optimization Quantitative Deterministic Island [76] • Using concentrating solar power for a MED process and electricity production as a hybrid system Technical and Economic Process design Quantitative Deterministic City [61] • Evaluating the optimal operation of an MSF desalination system powered by solar thermal energy Technical and Economic Experimental Quantitative Deterministic Laboratory scale [68] • Considering membrane fouling during intermi...…”

Dynamic Assessment of the Sustainability of Algal Biorefineries in the Production of Biofuels

“…This leads to decelerated growth and potentially allows for backsliding. In the case of [6], pressure for economic growth initially spurred the adoption of new technologies but was insufficient to sustain adoption as time progressed. In algal biorefineries, similar patterns may be observed in the treatment of environmental issues.…”